European Debt Crisis Update

Well participated and thorough discussions about the EU and the financial crisis of 2008 could be found on WAIS in the years 2001-2002 and Sept. 2008. Ireland has always been considered unique by EU standards. However in my opinion, then as now, Ireland is not totally immune from this contagion.

Below is the forecast as posted on WAIS re: World Economy -> More US Firms Move Abroad; on the “Fiscal Cliff” on 09/03/12.

“Then there is the EU debt crisis, which I believe will officially put Europe in recession by @September 20 or 21, 2012. *One way or another, the US economy will be affected by a European recession. ECB Pres. Mario Draghi did not attend the annual meeting at Jackson Hole.

JE comments:  How much has ^Ireland’s 12.5% corporate tax rate helped since 2008?  For example, have many corporations relocated there since the crisis began?  Nobody has the stomach for a “fiscal cliff”–I thought we already fell off one.  And aren’t several nations of Europe already in recession–Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy… and Ireland?

Note that Bienvenido Macario’s “cliff date” for Europe is not far away:  21 September”

From: World Economy -> More US Firms Move Abroad; on the “Fiscal Cliff” (Bienvenido Macario, USA) Sept. 03, 2012 05:13am

http://waisworld.org/go.jsp?id=02a&objectType=post&o=71880&objectTypeId=64641&topicId=196

Today’s news Sept. 20, 2012

^ Irish Economy Skirts Recession (for now)

By EAMON QUINN And PAUL HANNON

EUROPE NEWS September 20, 2012, 9:29 a.m. ET

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444032404578007951061647888.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

DUBLIN—The Irish economy avoided slipping into recession by the narrowest possible margin in the second quarter, but shrinking domestic demand canceled out a rise in exports, raising new questions about whether the country can meet its budget targets for next year.

=======================

@Global slowdown predicted as China records 11th month of recession

Larry Elliott Economics editor – The Guardian, Thursday 20 September 2012 13.33 EDT

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/sep/20/global-slowdown-predicted

The prospect of a synchronised recession across the global economy loomed larger on Thursday after news that China’s factory output shrank for an 11th straight month, Europe’s recession intensified and the manufacturing sector in the US had its weakest quarter in three years.

============== end of news excerpt ======

*U.S. factories struggle, Europe and China slump

By Steven C. Johnson and Andy Bruce | Reuters – 8 hrs ago Thursday, September 20, 2012

http://news.yahoo.com/u-factories-struggle-europe-china-slump-151102737–business.html?_esi=1

 

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. manufacturing suffered its weakest quarter in three years and conditions at European businesses worsened, surveys showed on Thursday, while China’s economy continued to lose momentum.

 

The data shed more light on the difficult task facing global policymakers, particularly in Europe and the United States, who have tried to increase growth with aggressive monetary stimulus.

 

The U.S. manufacturing sector closed out its worst three months in September since the third quarter of 2009, according to financial information firm Markit. Export orders fell for a fourth month running as demand from Europe and Asia faded, with September’s slide the steepest in nearly a year.

 

==============end of news excerpt ============

@Eurozone in Deepening Recession, Survey Finds

By PAN PYLAS Associated Press – LONDON September 20, 2012 (AP)

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/eurozone-deepening-recession-survey-finds-17278082#.UFsfvY2PW8A

 

Europe appears headed for a deepening economic recession despite a recent easing in market concerns over the three-year debt crisis, a closely-watched survey found Thursday.

 

Financial data company Markit said its purchasing managers’ index — a gauge of business activity — for the 17-country eurozone fell to 45.9 in September from 46.3 the previous month.

 

The decline was a surprise as the consensus in the markets was for a modest improvement. Anything below 50 indicates a contraction in economic activity.

 

September’s rate was the lowest in over three years and came despite an easing in the rate of economic contraction in Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy.

 

=========== end of news excerpt =====

 

I’m sure there is something I can contribute looking for solutions. However a recovery would simply maintain the status quo in other parts of the world and may not help regain control of certain ancestral lands to the rightful owner.  Let me reiterate. I seek Native American status, a Philippines freely associated with the U.K. or the U.S. , among others.

 

Ned Macario

Lemuria

Ancora Imparo

IGA

Stanford Ideas & Connections Network – Personal Update Feb. 12, 2011

Feb. 15, 2013

My recent post / comment is about the currency wars and a mark-to-market on the impending recession to impact the U.S. by March 15, 2013.

https://www.nedmacario.com/currencywars-u-s-in-recession-by-march-15-2013-mark-to-market-feb-15-2013/ 

===========================

From the time my personal update was posted on Feb. 12, 2011 to July 11, 2012 there have been two relevant developments:

1.) The nuclear disaster in Fukushima, Japan caused by the earthquake induced-tsunami on March 11, 2011.

2.) The controversy about the Team USA’s Made In China uniform.

My quest for a Freely Associated state in the Philippines could alleviate the problem in Japan by moving factories, even those in China, among others, to the Philippines.

As a Freely Associated state, any goods or services made in the Philippines could and should be labelled “Made In USA” thus addressing the issue where Team USA’s uniforms were made.

Here are two of many WAIS posts on my quest for Native American status; Freely Associated State and representation before the US Congress:

2011 CHRISTMAS GREETINGS

Happy Holidays 2011 (Bienvenido Macario, , 12/25/11 4:46 am)

https://waisworld.org/go.jsp?id=02a4&objectType=post&objectTypeId=62030&topicId=188

A very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all.

It’s been a little over a year since my wife Elena G. Macario passed away on December 10, 2010, the 112th anniversary of the Treaty of Paris ending the 1898 Spanish-American War and enabling the Philippines, Puerto Rico and Guam to become US possessions.

I am truly thankful for being a part of the WAIS Forum for it has helped ease my burden. Special thanks to the indefatigable WAIS editor John Eipper.

JE comments: One of my Christmas presents this year came in July: the chance to catch up with Bienvenido Macario and his talented son Drake at the WAIS/Torquay conference. Best Holiday wishes to you and yours, Bienvenido. Tell Drake to send us a personal update sometime; we’d love to hear from him. (WAISers may recall the sketch Drake drew of several of the conference attendees. I have the original in my possession, and it’s a cherished part of the WAIS archives. Drake captured my pronounced chin perfectly!)

   2010 CHRISTMAS GREETINGS

Holiday Greetings (Bienvenido Macario, Philippines/US) Dec. 25, 2010

https://waisworld.org/go.jsp?id=02a4&objectType=post&o=59543&objectTypeId=53793&topicId=188

Bienvenido Macario writes:

A very Merry Christmas and a Blessed New Year to all WAISers and their loved ones.

All I want for Christmas is my own state, freely associated state with the USA in the Philippines and Native American status for my people with representation in the US Congress.

JE comments:  Best Holiday wishes to Bienvenido Macario, and I wish him a healthy and prosperous 2011.  The *re-colonization by the US of Bienvenido’s native Philippines may be a tall request for Santa Claus…how about some neckties instead?

Seriously, I can think of no example in history of a former colony* voluntarily re-attaching itself to the metropolitan center; the Dominican Republic briefly submitted to re-colonization to Spain in the 19th century, but this was only a response to looming threats from Haiti.

In any case, the US doesn’t need more overseas territories to occupy and administer.

  * – In later discussions, WAIS editor acknowledged that the Philippines was not a colony of the USA. But this example shows the great need to re-educate Americans of their own history. Americans are no longer British and its the British who had colonies. Again the Philippines was purchased along with Puerto Rico and Guam from Spain for $2 million under the 1898 Treaty of Paris.

 

[stanford-consults] Personal Update  – Feb 12, 2011

1 message

________________________________________

Ben <ned.macario@gmail.com>               Sat, Feb 12, 2011 at 11:05 PM

To: stanford-consults@yahoogroups.com

Hello,

 Perhaps due to the slow economic recovery, prolonged dismal real estate market and California’s marathon budget crisis, I was compelled to pursue a rather unprecedented and unique goals with which substantial documentation have been gathered. Be it the global debt crisis or housing crisis in the UK and the US, from these goals and objectives platforms for solutions will come from. And these goals are:

1.) To secure Native American status for myself and my people that we may regain control of all our ancestral lands in the Philippines to be placed under the care of the US federal government.

2.) To get the appointment as the non-voting delegate representing the Philippines before the US Congress in the same way Puerto Rico, Guam, Virgin Islands, American Samoa have their respective non-voting delegate in the US Congress. Spain ceded the Philippines along with Puerto Rico and Guam to the U.S. by virtue of the 1898 Treaty of Paris.

3.) The creation of a Freely Associated State with the US in the Philippines.

Basically, an umbrella non-profit organization is needed that would function as a state government for the Philippines and therefore for starters we would need volunteers to secure grants and other forms of financing.

Off the top maybe a petition before the US Supreme Court for the first two goals would be the first step.

I’d gladly answer your questions and welcome your suggestions on how to go about securing these goals.

One focus is saving the environment in the Philippines; revival, restoration and preservation of wildlife habitat; and effective management of our natural resources in the Philippines.

Job creation and speed up the economic recovery is another focus of this project.

Now let us say some of the factories in China and elsewhere would be relocated to the Philippines. We can legally label those products “Made In the USA” and ship it over here in the mainland USA not as an import but as domestic products.

Can you imagine the big, positive impact on the US economy the repossession and extreme makeover of the Philippine Islands will bring in terms of job creation and saving the Philippine environment at the same time?

See you in the next meeting.

Ned Macario

Lemuria

Ancora Imparo

IGA

__._,_.___\\

My Personal Update Suggesting Recovery of the Philippines as a Freely Associated State – Feb. 12, 2011

Discussion with Marc Harris on My Quest for Native American Status and Tariff-Free “Made In The USA” Label for Goods Manufactured in the Philippines, A Freely Associated State.

The Great Recession – Forecast Dec. 15, 2007

From the forecast on subprime meltdown dated Dec. 15, 2006 as the mortgage crisis impacted Europe (Perfect Storm Over Europe Sept. 28, 2007), the mortgage crisis snowballed into the Great Recession of 2008. This is the forecast made on Dec. 15, 2007 as posted on the World Association of International Studies (WAIS)

US: Greenspan Says Odds Rising for Recession (Bienvenido Macario, Philippines) Dec. 15, 2007

Link:  http://waisworld.com/go.jsp?id=02a0&objectType=post&objectTypeId=13049&topicId=1

Dec. 15, 2007 Bienvenido Macario writes:

This is a bit of bad news for the US economy. Maybe the private sector could ask presidential candidates how they would each handle the economy if they have been recently sworn in as the president. Unfortunately the media won’t ask this question.

(1)If by March 2008 the private sector has done nothing for themselves, meaning they continue to rely on lowering or holding interest rates at their current level, then we’ll be heading into a recession. (2)The thing is the Federal Reserve Bank officers are not supposed to give direct advice or suggestions to the private sector . (3)TV financial/market news present interviews of guests and analysts, but nothing seems to be done. It makes you wonder if these guests and TV show hosts really know what is going on .

(1) I repeat my reminder: the private sector has three and half months to do something about the impending recession .

********************

Market Watch 12-13 30 yr fix ave. at 6.11% Thu 12-13-07

Dow                13,517.96   +44.06 + 0.33%

Nasdaq            2,668.49       -2.65 – 0.10%

S&P 500          1,488.41    +1.82   + 0.12%

10 Yr Bond(%)            4.1700%          +0.0940

Chart for 10 Yr Bond(%)

See the attached news item from 13 December 2007:

Greenspan: Odds Rising for a Recession
Thursday December 13, 2007
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer

Greenspan: Odds of a Recessions Are Rising, Economic Growth Is Getting
Close to ‘Stall Speed’

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071213/greenspan_economy.html

WASHINGTON (AP)—Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan says
the odds the U.S. will fall into a recession are “clearly rising” and he believes economic growth is “getting close to stall speed.”

Greenspan, who ran the central bank for 18 1/2 years, until early 2006, offered his views on the economy in an interview on NPR News’ Morning Edition that will air on Friday. Excerpts of the interview were released on Thursday.

A severe slump in the housing market, a stubborn credit crisis and turbulence on Wall Street are endangering the country’s economic health. Growth in the current October through December period is expected to have slowed to a feeble pace of just 1.5 percent, or less.

Economists, including Greenspan, have warned that the chances of a recession are growing.

Asked whether the economy will tip into a recession—something that has not happened since 2001—Greenspan said, “It’s too soon to say, but the odds are clearly rising.”

He said he felt this way because of the slowing pace of growth. “We are getting close to stall speed,” he said. “We are far more vulnerable at levels where growth is so slow than we would be otherwise,” he added. “Indeed, it’s like someone who has an immune system that’s not working very well is subject to all sorts of diseases and the economy at this lever of growth is subject to all sorts of shocks.”

Greenspan’s remarks come just days after the Federal Reserve, under Chairman Ben Bernanke, sliced a key interest rate for a third time this year to prevent the housing and credit troubles from sinking the economy.

The situation poses the biggest challenge yet to Bernanke since succeeding Greenspan in February 2006.

Some analysts have questioned whether Bernanke waited too long to cut the Fed’s key rate and whether he has acted aggressively enough to soothe the economy’s woes. The Fed initially dropped its key rate in September, the first reduction in four years. That was followed up by additional rate cuts in late October and then again on Tuesday.

Greenspan again rejected criticism that his policy actions helped to feed a housing boom that eventually went bust. Critics say Greenspan held interest rates too low for too long after the 2001 recession.

To have prevented such euphoria in housing that fed a bubble in prices, Greenspan said the Fed would have had to jack up interest rates so high that it would have damaged the economy. “That would have broken the back of the economy, and brought the housing boom down,” Greenspan said.

JE comments: I invite comments on November’s inflation figures in the US, which were the worst in three decades. I hope Bienvenido Macario’s forecast of economic doom does not come to pass, but I am very concerned…

—For information about the World Association of International Studies (WAIS), and its online publication, the World Affairs Report, read its homepage by simply double-clicking on: http://wais.stanford.edu/

John Eipper, Editor-in-Chief, Adrian College, MI 49221 USA

This entry was posted on Saturday, December 15th, 2007 at 7:03 pm and is filed under Varia. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

Link: http://cgi.stanford.edu/group/wais/cgi-bin/?p=13049

Update Dec. 16, 2007

 Greenspan sees early signs of U.S. stagflation

Sunday December 16, 2007 12:02 pm ET

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/071216/usa_economy_greenspan.html

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. economy is showing early signs of stagflation as growth threatens to stall while food and energy prices soar, former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Sunday.

In an interview on ABC’s “This Week with George Stephanopoulos,” Greenspan said low inflation was a major contributor to economic growth and prices must be held in check.

“We are beginning to get not stagflation, but the early symptoms of it,” Greenspan said.

“Fundamentally, inflation must be suppressed,” he added.  (1)   ”It’s critically important that the Federal Reserve is allowed politically to do what it has to do to suppress the inflation rates that I see emerging, not immediately, but clearly over the intermediate and longer-term period.”

The U.S. central bank has lowered its benchmark interest rate three times since mid-September as a housing downturn, tightening credit conditions, and steep food and energy prices threaten to push the U.S. economy into recession.

But cutting rates can have the unwanted side effect of pushing up prices, so the Fed finds itself in a tricky position of trying to revive growth without spurring inflation.

Last week, U.S. data showed that wholesale inflation rose at the highest rate in 34 years, while consumer prices rose the most in more than two years.

Greenspan repeated his assessment that the probability of a U.S. recession had moved up toward 50 percent but noted that corporate America’s debt levels were in good shape, which should help cushion the blow from tightening credit terms.

 (1) “The real story is, with the extraordinary credit problems we’re confronting, why the probabilities (of recession) are not 60 percent or 70 percent,” he said.

“Because of the decline in long-term interest rates for a protracted period of time, American business was able to fund a significant part of its short-term liabilities and take out low-cost, long-term debt, so the credit needs have not been all that large,” he said.

(News abbreviated)

 ===================================  

Three and a half months later.

(1)  Greenspan, on CNBC: U.S. in recession

Tuesday Apr 8, 2008 6:28 PM ET

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080408/bs_nm/usa_economy_greenspan_dc;_ylt=AkWg._VXjpYSAZeQ7RD3zQhv24cA

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Tuesday the U.S. economy was in recession, and said it would be appropriate to tap public funds to resolve the mortgage-related crisis that has helped pull the economy under. (News abbreviated)

===================================  

 (12) Bernanke: New Crisis Must Be Stemmed Now

Thursday April 10, 2008 2:21 pm ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Bernanke: Regulators Must Move Ahead to Prevent Next Financial Crisis

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080410/bernanke_credit_crisis.html

WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday that regulators must move ahead on ways to prevent a future financial crisis from occurring even as they battle one that threatens to plunge the country into recession.

“We do not have the luxury of waiting for markets to stabilize before we think about the future,” Bernanke said in a speech in Richmond.

Last month Bernanke, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and other top economic policymakers called for stricter regulation of mortgage lenders as part of a broad effort to prevent a repeat of the credit and financial problems that have damaged the economy.

(news abbreviated)

=============================================

BONUS: Technology Merger & Acquisition Analysis 

 April 9, 2008 Market Forecast, impact date May 23, 2008

Date: Wed, 9 Apr 2008 13:55:47 -0700
From: “Ned Macario” <ned.macario@gmail.com>
To: “Ned Macario” <ned.macario@gmail.com>, “Bienvenido Macario” <laspinassja@yahoo.com>, “lazir888” <lazir888@yahoo.com>
Subject: Yahoo in talks to use Google search ads: source

April 09, 2008

This is good.  Factor in a drop of the stock market on the third week of May, right around Memorial Day weekend.  Most probably on or before Fri. May 23, 2008.  It’s the ‘pre-summer’ jitters.

Price of gas at the pumps pretty much will dictate the mood of summer this year.

(E-mail abbreviated)

 ============================================

 Fri. May 23, 2008

Dow                12,479.63        -145.99   -1.16%

Nasdaq             2,444.67          -19.91   -0.81%

S&P 500           1,375.93          -18.42   -1.32%

10 Yr Bond(%)           3.8310%          -0.0900

 

Thur. May 22, 2008

Dow                12,625.62        +24.43  +0.19%

Nasdaq           2,464.58          +16.31 +0.67%

S&P 500         1,394.35            +3.64 +0.26%

10 Yr Bond(%)           3.9210%          +0.0990

 

Wed. May 21, 2008

Dow                12,601.19        -227.49 -1.77%

Nasdaq             2,448.27          -43.99 -1.77%

S&P 500           1,390.71          -22.69 -1.61%

10 Yr Bond(%)            3.8220%            +0.0460

 

Tues. May 20, 2008

Dow                12,828.68        -199.48 -1.53%

Nasdaq             2,492.26         -23.83 -0.95%

S&P 500           1,413.40        -13.23  -0.93%

10 Yr Bond(%)            3.7760%          0.0000

 

Mon.  May 19, 2008

Dow                13,028.16        +41.36   +0.32%

Nasdaq             2,516.09        -12.76   -0.50%

S&P 500           1,426.63          +1.28   +0.09%

10 Yr Bond(%) 3.84%            -0.01

=========

 

Update: February 20, 2009

 

(3Volcker  – Even the experts don’t quite know what’s going on 02-20-09

Volcker sees greater international cooperation on regulations growing from economic crisis

Eileen Aj Connelly, AP Business Writer

Friday February 20, 2009, 6:29 pm EST

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Volcker-sees-crisis-leading-apf-14430040.html

\NEW YORK (AP) — “Even the experts don’t quite know what’s going on.” 3.

Speaking to a number of those experts Friday, Paul Volcker, a top economic adviser to President Barack Obama, cited not only the lack of understanding of the global financial meltdown but the “shocking” speed with which it had spread across the world.

Update: February 09, 2011

(2)Ben Bernanke’s silence speaks volumes 02-09-11   

The Federal Reserve chairman offered no policy to address the grotesque juxtaposition of corporate profits and jobless misery

Richard Wolff guardian.co.uk,

Wednesday 9 February 2011 20.49 GMT

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2011/feb/09/ben-bernanke-congress

Time out: question time is up for Ben Bernanke, testifying before the House budget committee, 9 February 2011. Photograph: Reuters/Kevin Lamarque

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony before the House budget committee on Wednesday largely repeated what he has been saying recently. It was interesting only for its likewise repeated silences which, as so often, spoke loudly.  (2) The biggest silence concerned taxing corporations and the rich in the US.

Many sentences were devoted to the burdens of the huge deficits being run by the US government, to the need to reduce those deficits. Otherwise, Bernanke warned, lenders might one day stop providing those immense flows into the US Treasury. But not one word about reducing the deficit by taxing large corporations and the rich.

On Tuesday, Britain’s chancellor of the exchequer announced a modest tax increase on banks in the UK: a “fair contribution”, he said, “to our recovery”. No such idea, let alone any action, in the US.

Instead, we hear pronouncements like Bernanke’s that seem to believe that cutting outlays in the only way to go. The debate then becomes about which outlays to cut.

Bernanke makes clear his preferred cuts lie in healthcare. Note that the US already spends more than other developed nations for poorer healthcare outcomes as measured by national health statistics. Bernanke says nothing about lowering government outlays by reducing the profits of drugmakers and healthcare providers. Nor do the possible impacts of reduced healthcare upon the wellbeing and productivity of the US workforce merit any comment or concern from Bernanke.

It is worth remembering that when the US borrows trillions of dollars to cover deficits, a significant portion of that borrowing comes from the large corporations and richest individuals who lend to the government the money that, apparently, they did not have to pay in taxes to that government. I can see the desirability for them of lending at interest rather than being taxed. The matter looks otherwise from the standpoint of the rest of us.

Silence on taxation of corporations and the rich should be exposed and opposed for the blatant ideological bias it represents.

 (2) Another deafening silence concerned the matter of states and cities. Their currently projected cuts in public services and employment will damage education, infrastructure maintenance and countless social services. Their effects will overwhelm the far smaller initiatives that Obama announced in his state of the union message and which will only be realised in part given the split political control of Congress. Like Obama, Bernanke had nothing to say or offer on the dire crisis of state and city budgets.

 (2)  Last, consider the silence on unemployment. Bernanke did explain that the current rate of job creation, if maintained, would mean many more years of high unemployment. No word was uttered about even the vaguest idea of government job creation – again, a silence, as if that idea or programme did not exist (despite massive evidence to the contrary provided by FDR in the 1930s).

Of course, taxing large corporations and the rich would have its effects on the larger economy, positive and negative. In any rational debate, those effects would have to be weighed and considered against the positive and negative effects of the alternatives, including those used since this crisis began and those now projected. Instead, we have silences from Bernanke and from Obama, silences that close and narrow, rather than open and widen, discussion over the nation’s crisis and future.

== end of paper US: Greenspan Says Odds Rising for Recession updated 02-09-11 ==

Bienvenido Macario

Lemuria

Ancora Imparo

IGA