Halloween 2012: Nightmare on Wall Street – Redux Oct. 19, 2012

Oct. 23, 2012 – The scare continues on “Nightmare on Wall Street – Redux”

MARKET SUMMARY, Tue. Oct. 23, 2012 “Hope is not an investment strategy”

Dow                 13,123.82        -222.07            -1.66%

Nasdaq              2,999.24          -17.72            -0.59%

S&P 500            1,414.95          -18.87            -2.79%

10 Yr Bond(%)  176%               -0.04             -1.32%

Oil                         88.30             -0.43             -0.48%

Gold                1,713.60            -16.70             -0.97%

EUR/USD       1,2977                -0.01              -0.68%

Earnings, Europe Pummel the Markets

BreakoutThe market got smacked Tuesday as the third quarter earnings season continues to come in even worse than expected. From high tech darlings the selling has moved into Blue Chips often sold as safe alternatives.

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October 19, 2012

In the “Paper No. VIII 05/21/04”,page I’ve listed several industries including 5.) Banking; 6.) Investment/Finance and 7. technology (Silicon Valley). No. 1 is Publishing. The order being bad news comes to banking, the investments the technology. And the whole cycle begins with 1.) Publishing.

Last week bad news from banking and technology came guess what? Here’s the news:

Thriving ‘Onion’ Puts Another Print Edition Out Of Business

OCTOBER 18, 2012 | ISSUE 48•42 | MORE NEWS IN BRIEF

http://www.theonion.com/articles/thriving-onion-puts-another-print-edition-out-of-b,29977/

I’m going to provide the calls on each of the industry listed like the retail industry separate and distinct from the clothing/apparel. On another topic, there are photos that would say a lot more that would be posted as soon as possible.

For today, Friday, October 19, 2012, the market closed as follows:

Dow      13,343.51        -205.43            – 1.52%
Nasdaq   3,005.62         -67.24              -2.19%
S&P 500 1,433.19         -24.15              -1.66%
Oil               90.14            -1.96               -2.13%

10 Yr Bond(%)  1.77        -0.06              -3.18%

Eur/Dollar  1.3023          -0.00              -0.36%

Gold          1,721.6         -23.10              -1.32%

This figures are eerily similar to Nov. 2, 2007. For 10/19/2012 the catalyst for the market drop is:

Earnings from McDonald’s, Microsoft sink stocks – Oct. 19, 2012

Weak earnings reports from McDonald’s, Microsoft and others drive stocks lower on Wall Street

By Matthew Craft, AP Business Writer | Associated Press – 7 hours ago Friday, October 19, 2012

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/earnings-mcdonalds-microsoft-sink-stocks-141915111.html;_ylt=AgXbPkLi.B25pycXvNE93rKiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTNydGg2dHU0BG1pdANGUCBUb3AgU3RvcnkgTGVmdARwa2cDYWZjM2I4YWUtYjQyNi0zMDVkLWI3YTUtYzJkYjRjMDE2M2MxBHBvcwMxBHNlYwN0b3Bfc3RvcnkEdmVyA2Q5ZmM4OGQwLTFhMDktMTFlMi1iYmRmLTNiNTg5MTY0NGMxOQ–;_ylg=X3oDMTFpNzk0NjhtBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3

But the main concern is the fiscal cliff that could bury the economy deeper into recession.

‘Fiscal Cliff’ May Be Bigger Threat Than You Think – Oct. 19, 2012

By Jeff Cox | CNBC – 4 hours ago Friday, October 19, 2012

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fiscal-cliff-may-bigger-threat-191938563.html;_ylt=AvyWTCx0y9ARN.U.m2VZKgKiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQ4MGg2ZWM3BG1pdANDTkJDIFRvcCBTdG9yaWVzBHBrZwM5MDI3MWIxNi04NzQwLTNjYTctYjViNC0zMDE5MTk2N2JiN2YEcG9zAzEEc2VjA01lZGlhQkxpc3RNaXhlZExQQ0FUZW1wBHZlcgMzMWMyOWE2OC0xYTI3LTExZTItOGZlZi04MGZiNmIyNWMyNWM-;_ylg=X3oDMTFpNzk0NjhtBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3

As the deadline for fiscal peril in the U.S. nears, Wall Street is worried that the impact could be much worse than anyone thought-while investors remain nearly oblivious to the danger.

Looming tax increases and spending cuts — which Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has labeled the “fiscal cliff” — would send the economy into a deeper recession than many have predicted, according to economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

========== news abbreviated ==========

Big Banks Blast Washington: Fix the Fiscal Cliff Now!

By Matt Nesto | Breakout – Thu, Oct 18, 2012 10:58 AM EDT

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/big-banks-blast-washington-fix-fiscal-cliff-now-145803404.html

From routine check-ups to subsidized gym memberships to diet counseling and more, the practice of preventative care has reshaped the way we think about and spend money on staying healthy. Aside from the obvious physical benefits, the overwhelming fiscal benefits have proven that it’s a whole lot cheaper to keep people healthy than it is to make them well after they get sick.

And so it is with the country’s own financial health. This morning the Financial Services Forum — a group of the nation’s top bankers — sent a letter to the White House and Congress warning that our country is facing grave consequences if nothing is done to address the fiscal cliff that’s set to inflict over a trillion dollars of automatic budget cuts and tax increases on January 1st. 15 bank CEO signatories along with the group’s president & CEO are not only calling on Washington to “negotiate a bi-partisan agreement as quickly as possible” to address the cliff, but are also urging lawmakers to ”restore the nation’s long-term fiscal soundness.”

========== news abbreviated ==========

Why ”Nightmare on Wall St. – Redux”? Because this month could be like 2011, a repeat of 2007 as posted on WAIS: US: Presidential Candidates on Nuclear Weapons (Bienvenido Macario, Philippinesposted on Fri, Nov 2, 2007 at 4:52 AM and also on 2011.

Excerpt:

“Now the scare continues in “Halloween ’07 – Nightmare on Wall Street”: These are the figures for November 1st (2007)”

Dow     13,567.87        -362.14            -2.60%
Nasdaq  2,794.83         -64.29              -2.25%
S&P 500 1,508.44        -40.94              -2.64%
10 Yr Bond(%)            4.3610%          -0.1140

Nov. 1, 2011: Déjà vu?

Now the scare continues in “Halloween ’11 – Nightmare on Wall Street”: These are the figures for 1st November 2011

MARKET SUMMARY, Mon. Oct. 31, 2011

Dow                 11,955.01        -276.10            -2.26%

Nasdaq              2,684.41          -52.74            -1.93%

S&P 500            1,253.30          -31.79            -2.47%

10 Yr Bond(%)  2.1750%       -0.1310

Oil                         92.68             -0.64             -0.69%

Gold                1,724.00          -22.20             -1.27%

 

MARKET SUMMARY, Tue. Nov. 01, 2011

Dow                 11,657.96        -297.05            -2.48%

Nasdaq              2,606.96          -77.45            -2.89%

S&P 500            1,218.28          -35.02            -2.79%

10 Yr Bond(%)  2.0010%       -0.1740

Oil                         91.64              -1.55            -1.66%

Gold                1,720.10              -4.10            -0.24%

WAIS: US: Presidential Candidates on Nuclear Weapons (Bienvenido Macario, Philippinesposted on Fri, Nov 2, 2007 at 4:52 AM and also on 2011.

http://waisworld.org/go.jsp?id=02a0&objectType=post&objectTypeId=12297&topicId=1

 

Bienvenido Macario responds to David Krieger’s post of 30 October (2007):

I am thankful that David Krieger Founder and President of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation brought this topic up.  We are dealing with three questions here:

1.)  What is on the mind of Presidential Candidates on Nuclear Weapons during the campaign period?

2.) What’s on the mind of a newly elected or re-elected President?

3.) What would the US Congress allow the President and Chief Executive
(no. 2) to do?

It does not always follow that a pro-_______ (fill in the cause for example: nuclear disarmament) president would be able to carry out his/her campaign promise. Sometimes those who never said anything about troop withdrawal or made pro-environment statements end up acting on it.

A case in point is Nixon, who got the US Troops out of Vietnam and created the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency).  It was Pres. John F. Kennedy who got the US in Vietnam and Pres. Lyndon B. Johnson who later escalated and micromanaged the war.  JFK and LBJ were both Democrats. Also it was Eisenhower a GOP who stopped the Korean War that started under Truman, a Democrat.

Now the scare continues in “Halloween ’07 – Nightmare on Wall Street”: These are the figures for November 1st (2007):

Dow     13,567.87        -362.14            -2.60%
Nasdaq  2,794.83         -64.29              -2.25%
S&P 500 1,508.44        -40.94              -2.64%
10 Yr Bond(%)            4.3610%          -0.1140

Fed Pumps $41B Into US Financial System–AP

The Federal Reserve pumped $41 billion into the US financial system Thursday, the largest cash infusion since September 2001, to help companies get through a credit crunch.

Chrysler to Cut Up to 12,000 Jobs–AP
Oil is pegged at $96.00 and analysts believe the cuts in interest rate
have stopped.

JE comments:  A question for WAIS speculation:  when (day and date) will oil hit the century mark ($100) a barrel?  Besides bragging rights, the winner will receive the first-ever WAIS coffee mug–as soon as we design it and have it manufactured (in China?).  Which gets me thinking:  what should the WAIS coffee mug look like?


For information about the World Association of International Studies (WAIS), and its online publication, the World Affairs Report, read its homepage by simply double-clicking on: http://wais.stanford.edu/

John Eipper, Editor-in-Chief, Adrian College, MI 49221 USA

Zero Sum Game of Global Finance 4th Edition & the Calif. Budget Deficit

By Eric Bellman October 12, 2012, 1:28 AM SGT

http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2012/10/12/hunger-plunges-everywhere-in-southeast-asia-except-the-philippines/?KEYWORDS=philippines

JAKARTA – The total number of chronically hungry people in Southeast Asia has plunged by close to 70 million in the last two decades thanks to economic growth and policies to feed the poor, but the number of people that regularly go to sleep with their stomachs growling in the Philippines has actually grown.

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Non-sequitur: Is it possible California is a colony of the Oligarchic Philippines & Sacramento just doesn’t know it?

News: British royal family worth more than $1 billion, report says

By Ron Recinto | The Lookout – Wed, Jun 6, 2012

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/british-royal-family-worth-more-1-billion-report-152930722.html;_ylt=Au4v.mfL61NGgvI7Ilvigh.s0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTNtNjA5dmRyBG1pdANUb3BTdG9yeSBGUARwa2cDOGRlZGYwZjQtZGI2Yy0zODE4LWFjNWMtZDk4NGZhYjc5NGE0BHBvcwMxMARzZWMDdG9wX3N0b3J5BHZlcgM0MjEyMWVhMC1iMDBlLTExZTEtYmVmOS1kNTFiNmU2ZmQ3YzM-;_ylg=X3oDMTFlamZvM2ZlBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdAMEcHQDc2VjdGlvbnM-;_ylv=3

Also in June Forbes magazine published the 40 richest Filipinos whose combined net worth totaled $47.43 billion. See:

Forbes 40 Richest Filipinos total networth  

 http://www.forbes.com/philippines-billionaires/list/

While the British Royal family goes back hundreds of years, twenty-five (25) years ago, there wasn’t a single Filipino on Forbes list of the richest men.

Unless there is a reasonable and acceptable explanation, this makes the wealth of the richest Filipinos “unexplained” and ill-gotten.  Maybe the IMF, World Bank, ADB and the UN have an explanation.

Below is  Zero Sum Game of Global Finance-4th Edition showing that despite the financial crisis of 2008 and the Great Recession, the 40 richest Filipinos continue to accumulate unexplained wealth. Thanks to the World Bank, IMF, ADB and the UN.

Zero Sum Game of Global Finance 4th Edition 12-29-10, updated 03-29-11 and 04-21-11

California Budget Deficit                       $16.0 Billion* as of 02-20-08

40 Richest Filipinos–Total Net Worth      $16.2 Billion+ as of 10-18-07

 

California Budget Deficit                       $20.0 Billion@ as of 03-17-10

40 Richest Filipinos–Total Net Worth      $20.4 Billion^^ as of 07-31-10

 

California Budget Deficit                       $26.6 Billion++ as of 03-29-11

40 Richest Filipinos–Total Net Worth      $26.2 Billion~~ as of 03-09-11

+ ^^ ~~ – From Forbes Magazine

 

WAIS Posts on Zero-Sum Game of Global Finance

Ivy League Endowments Shrink by $26 Billion 2008-2009 (Bienvenido Macario, 04/26/11 4:48 am)

http://waisworld.org/go.jsp?id=02a&objectType=post&o=61503&objectTypeId=55753&topicId=111

Cuba: Obama to Allow Travel, Money Transfers (Bienvenido Macario, Philippines/US  04/14/09 4:13 am)

http://waisworld.org/go.jsp?id=02a&objectType=post&o=37081&objectTypeId=31331&topicId=1

 

US: on the Financial Crisis and Bailout+ (Bienvenido Macario, Philippines)

Posted September25, 2008

http://waisworld.org/go.jsp?id=02a&objectType=post&o=24935&objectTypeId=19185&topicId=1

Final comment: If the overseas aspect of this financial crisis is not contained by reforming, replacing or rivaling the World Bank, IMF and the UN, we’d be lucky to enjoy three years of recovery from this crisis before we are plunged to a deeper and more desperate downturn.

If this crisis happened between elections, it would have been crystal-clear to our leaders in Congress, the government, the private sector, investors, the media and the public that it was the collective fault of the World Bank, IMF and the UN that brought the crisis deep into this level.

Even as recently as Dec. 14, 2007, the World Bank continued to seek funds for debt forgiveness and in fact secured $16.5 billion~ in cash for the purpose. The  California State budget deficit did not add up to $16 billion+ until Feb. 20, 2008.

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RivCo: Next Budget is About $23m in Red – May 1, 2012

Economists says the 2012-13 County budget pushes the deficit even higher than expected.

By City News Service – May 1, 2012

http://palmdesert.patch.com/articles/rivco-next-budget-is-about-23m-in-red

 

Enrile says US $30-M military aid an ‘insult’ – May 7, 2012

http://www.tribuneonline.org/20120507/headlines/20120507hea4.html#.T6fojGx0GkE.facebook

Washington’s offer of $30-million foreign military financing (FMF) to the country made during a high-level meeting between the Philippines and United States’ Foreign and Defense officials is an insult.

That’s how Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile viewed the military aid promised to Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario and Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin, adding that it need not be sought by the government considering that such is a commitment made by the US under the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT).

Malacañang, Enrile said, should not accept such offer.

“They should provide military equipment. (They should comply) not only with the MDT. They signed a military assistance agreement with the Philippines, so they should comply with it.

While Enrile would not highlight the fact that the US government opted to stay neutral in the Philippines’ tension with China over territorial dispute in the Scarborough Shoal, the reported offer to boost the country’s military capabilities came as an “insult.”

“If I were the Aquino government, I would say ‘thank you,’ I do not need your $30 million. We can provide that $30 million for ourselves.”

European Debt Crisis Update

Well participated and thorough discussions about the EU and the financial crisis of 2008 could be found on WAIS in the years 2001-2002 and Sept. 2008. Ireland has always been considered unique by EU standards. However in my opinion, then as now, Ireland is not totally immune from this contagion.

Below is the forecast as posted on WAIS re: World Economy -> More US Firms Move Abroad; on the “Fiscal Cliff” on 09/03/12.

“Then there is the EU debt crisis, which I believe will officially put Europe in recession by @September 20 or 21, 2012. *One way or another, the US economy will be affected by a European recession. ECB Pres. Mario Draghi did not attend the annual meeting at Jackson Hole.

JE comments:  How much has ^Ireland’s 12.5% corporate tax rate helped since 2008?  For example, have many corporations relocated there since the crisis began?  Nobody has the stomach for a “fiscal cliff”–I thought we already fell off one.  And aren’t several nations of Europe already in recession–Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy… and Ireland?

Note that Bienvenido Macario’s “cliff date” for Europe is not far away:  21 September”

From: World Economy -> More US Firms Move Abroad; on the “Fiscal Cliff” (Bienvenido Macario, USA) Sept. 03, 2012 05:13am

http://waisworld.org/go.jsp?id=02a&objectType=post&o=71880&objectTypeId=64641&topicId=196

Today’s news Sept. 20, 2012

^ Irish Economy Skirts Recession (for now)

By EAMON QUINN And PAUL HANNON

EUROPE NEWS September 20, 2012, 9:29 a.m. ET

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444032404578007951061647888.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

DUBLIN—The Irish economy avoided slipping into recession by the narrowest possible margin in the second quarter, but shrinking domestic demand canceled out a rise in exports, raising new questions about whether the country can meet its budget targets for next year.

=======================

@Global slowdown predicted as China records 11th month of recession

Larry Elliott Economics editor – The Guardian, Thursday 20 September 2012 13.33 EDT

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/sep/20/global-slowdown-predicted

The prospect of a synchronised recession across the global economy loomed larger on Thursday after news that China’s factory output shrank for an 11th straight month, Europe’s recession intensified and the manufacturing sector in the US had its weakest quarter in three years.

============== end of news excerpt ======

*U.S. factories struggle, Europe and China slump

By Steven C. Johnson and Andy Bruce | Reuters – 8 hrs ago Thursday, September 20, 2012

http://news.yahoo.com/u-factories-struggle-europe-china-slump-151102737–business.html?_esi=1

 

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. manufacturing suffered its weakest quarter in three years and conditions at European businesses worsened, surveys showed on Thursday, while China’s economy continued to lose momentum.

 

The data shed more light on the difficult task facing global policymakers, particularly in Europe and the United States, who have tried to increase growth with aggressive monetary stimulus.

 

The U.S. manufacturing sector closed out its worst three months in September since the third quarter of 2009, according to financial information firm Markit. Export orders fell for a fourth month running as demand from Europe and Asia faded, with September’s slide the steepest in nearly a year.

 

==============end of news excerpt ============

@Eurozone in Deepening Recession, Survey Finds

By PAN PYLAS Associated Press – LONDON September 20, 2012 (AP)

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/eurozone-deepening-recession-survey-finds-17278082#.UFsfvY2PW8A

 

Europe appears headed for a deepening economic recession despite a recent easing in market concerns over the three-year debt crisis, a closely-watched survey found Thursday.

 

Financial data company Markit said its purchasing managers’ index — a gauge of business activity — for the 17-country eurozone fell to 45.9 in September from 46.3 the previous month.

 

The decline was a surprise as the consensus in the markets was for a modest improvement. Anything below 50 indicates a contraction in economic activity.

 

September’s rate was the lowest in over three years and came despite an easing in the rate of economic contraction in Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy.

 

=========== end of news excerpt =====

 

I’m sure there is something I can contribute looking for solutions. However a recovery would simply maintain the status quo in other parts of the world and may not help regain control of certain ancestral lands to the rightful owner.  Let me reiterate. I seek Native American status, a Philippines freely associated with the U.K. or the U.S. , among others.

 

Ned Macario

Lemuria

Ancora Imparo

IGA