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2013 Perfect Storm Prediction dated June 5, 2013 impact date June 19, 2013

Bienvenido Macario shared a link.
June 5, 2013 near Riverside, CA

PREDICTION TIME: Ok, here we go. May 27, 2013 WAIS post: “According to the story below, the Fed could cut back on the stimulus bond buying “sooner than expected.” This will likely result in higher Treasury yields and a slide in stocks. I think it’s time for analysts, investors, and businesses to really work and stop relying on government stimulus.

How the Fed could ruin your summer holiday
By Luciana Lopez | Reuters – Sunday, May 26, 2013

JE comments: We caught some “sell in May” behavior at the tail end of last week. I don’t have the stomach for any summertime correction (who does?), but the market has been a bit too exuberant of late.

USA (America) – Fed to End Stimulus? (Bienvenido Macario, USA) Mon, May 27, 2013 at 2:36 PM
http://waisworld.org/go.jsp?id=02a3&objectType=post&o=77040…

WAIS – World Association for International Studies
waisworld.org
Founded in 1965 at Stanford University by Prof. Ronald Hilton (1911-2007), WAIS is a political, economic, and religious forum moderated by John Eipper, Adrian College. Contributing members include scholars, journalists, professors, military professionals and business leaders from around the world.
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  • Bienvenido Macario I think the dust will settle around June 22, 2013
    Dow drops -209 on Fri. 05-31-13

    Dow Jones 15,115.57 -208.96 (-1.36%)
    S&P 500 1,630.74 -23.7 (-1.43%)
    Nasdaq 3,455.91 -22.31 ( %)

    Dow drops -217 Today Wed. 06-05-13

    Dow Jones 14,960.59 -216.95 (-1.43%)
    S&P 500 1,608.90 -22.48 (-1.38%)
    Nasdaq 3,401.48 -43.78 (-1.27%)
  • Bienvenido Macario Why do I think “the dust will settle around 22 June (2013)”? Because the Fed has yet to cut back on the stimulus. But in the mean time today Wed. 06/05/13 mortgage interest rates went UP from 3.6% to 4.07%. High interest rate is a component of the “Perfect Storm Syndrome”- global edition.

    For me, and this is just me, it doesn’t matter how high or low the interest or tax rates are as long as corporations and businesses know how to anticipate the coming challenges. (Please see on my website: Paper No. VIII – Forecast on Businesses & Industries –5/21/2004 updated 11/16/2012 ).

    During Reagan’s time interest went up as high as 20% (June 1981). During Eisenhower’s time tax rates was as high as 90%! 

    Someone gave a good analogy using a football game where your team is behind by 27 points with less than 10 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. Are you going to wait for the game to finish or head out and avoid the traffic? The same with the Fed’s stimulus cut back. You want to dump your stocks while you still can. After a certain price point, might as well hold on to it.

    Mortgage interest rates reach the four percent mark
    Rates jumped from 3.6% to 4.07%
    Published : Wednesday, 05 Jun 2013, 10:30 PM EDT
    http://www.wwlp.com/…/mortgage-interest-rates-reach-the…

    www.wwlp.com

    Mortgage interest rates have broken the 4 percent mark for the first time in a y…See More
  • Bienvenido Macario Ok this one is from Oct. 18, 2009, more than three years ago.

    “The components of the Perfect Storm Syndrome-Global Edition are: HIGH OIL PRICES; HIGH INTEREST RATES (COMING SOON TO A MORTGAGE NEAR YOU!) and a strong dollar. While the domestic components of the Perfect Storm contagion are: HEALTH CARE (high costs); RETIREMENT/PENSION (lack thereof) and EDUCATION (this is the biggest challenge of all as the strong dollar is in the global edition).

    The financial system is now in crisis for lack of cash and credit in all sectors of society.

    As of last week the US Treasury quietly abandoned the pursuit of a “strong dollar” and the stock market rose. 

    I am not in favor of a weak US Dollar, but currencies and liquids behave exactly the same: water seeks its own level. 

    re: Capitalism and Democracy (Bienvenido Macario, Philippines/US)
    Posted on October 18th, 2009 
    http://waisworld.org/go.jsp?id=02a0&objectType=post…

    waisworld.org

    Founded in 1965 at Stanford University by Prof. Ronald Hilton (1911-2007), WAIS…See More
  • Bienvenido Macario Maybe this coming “June swoon” (since the “Sell-in-May-&-go-away” didn’t happen) is a blessing in disguise. Who knows analysts, investors and businesses are good when they panic. PANIC!!!

    Excerpt from 19 May 2010 Warning by Paul Volcker: 

    May 19 (Bloomberg) — Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, a top outside adviser to President Barack Obama, said time is “growing short” for the U.S. to address problems ranging from its budget deficit to Social Security obligations.

    “We better get started,” the 82-year-old former central banker said in a speech yesterday in Stanford , California . “Today’s concerns may soon become tomorrow’s existential crises.”

    Volcker, speaking hours after the euro fell to a four-year low against the dollar, said Europe demonstrates for the U.S. the hazards of “uncontrolled borrowing.” The European currency slid below $1.22 for the first time since April 2006 as a ban by German authorities on certain bearish investments fueled concern the region’s sovereign debt woes will worsen.

    “Little has happened to allay my concerns” raised five years ago (2005) that “dangerous and intractable” problems were rising in the U.S. , said Volcker, chairman of the president’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board.

    “Intractable not just because of the combination of complicated issues, but because there seemed to be so little willingness or capacity to do much about it,” he said during a dinner at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.

    “In the United States , we don’t seem to me to share the same sense of urgency” as countries such as Ireland , Volcker said in his speech. “THE TIME WE HAVE IS GROWING SHORT” and “there are serious questions, most immediately about the sustainability of our commitment to growing entitlement programs.”

    In addition, Volcker said the U.S. MUST REBUILD ITS MORTGAGE MARKET FROM “the ground up” and higher capital requirements alone won’t be enough to prevent the next crisis.

    Volcker Says Time Is Running Out for U.S. to Tackle Fiscal Woes
    May 19, 2010, 3:16 AM EDT By Vivien Lou Chen
    http://www.businessweek.com/…/volcker-says-time-is…

    www.businessweek.com

    June 3 (Bloomberg) — The 800-acre Scottish Island of Tanera Mor has recently be…See More
  • Bienvenido Macario Why my consulting business would be very challenging. It is not enough that I have specific answers or a plethora of options for industries or businesses. The major obstacle is explaining the solutions when they do not have the same appraisal of the situation. Income from ads is more viable than consulting.

    In this article as early as Feb. 20, 2009, Paul Volcker hinted on the need to overhaul the mortgage industry from the ground up.

    Personally, my concern is intellectual property rights. I mean in the financial world, a new product or system is copied and improved within 48 hours of its initial launch. And this was in 1989!

    I’m confident with my surveys and systems analysis, design and monitoring of solutions but I must have a five-year lead/exclusivity guaranteed by the U.S. and other industrialized governments including the emerging markets.

    Otherwise the best option is total financial market meltdown. Then everything must start from the ground up, not just the mortgage market.
    =========================
    NEW YORK — “EVEN THE EXPERTS DON’T QUITE KNOW WHAT’S GOING ON.” – Paul Volcker, Feb. 20, 2009

    Speaking to a number of those experts Friday, Paul Volcker, a top economic adviser to President Barack Obama, cited not only the lack of understanding of the global financial meltdown but the “shocking” speed with which it had spread across the world.

    “One year ago, we would have said things were tough in the United States, but the rest of the world was holding up,” Volcker told a conference featuring Nobel laureates, economists and investors at Columbia University in New York. “The rest of the world has not held up.”

    In fact, the 81-year-old former chairman of the Federal Reserve said, “I don’t remember any time, maybe even the Great Depression, when things went down quite so fast.”

    He noted that industrial production is falling in countries across the globe faster than in the U.S., one result of the decline caused by the breakdown of unbridled financial markets that operated on a global scale.

    Volcker – Economic Crisis May Be Worse Than Great Depression
    Paul Volcker: Economic Crisis May Be Worse Than Great Depression
    NEW YORK — “Even the experts don’t quite know what’s going on.”
    EILEEN AJ CONNELLY Feb. 20, 2009 06:29 PM ET 
    EILEEN AJ CONNELLY 02/20/09 06:29 PM ET 
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…/paul-volcker-financial…

    www.huffingtonpost.com

    NEW YORK — “Even the experts don’t quite know what’s going on.” Speaking to a nu…See More
  • Bienvenido Macario This recommendation from Greenspan came in today: “Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told CNBC on Friday that the central bank should taper its $85 billion a month bond buying even if the U.S. economy is not ready for it. (Read More Below the Video.)

    “The sooner we come to grips with this excessive level of assets on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve-that everybody agrees is excessive-the better,” he said in a ” Squawk Box ” interview. “There is a general presumption that we can wait indefinitely and make judgments on when we’re going to move. I’m not sure the market will allow us to do that.”

    But if the Fed moves too quickly in reining in its accommodative policies, he added, it could shock the market, which is already dealing with a very large element of uncertainty.

    Greenspan said he’s not sure the markets will allow an easy exit. “Gradual is adequate, but we’ve got to get moving.”

    Greenspan: Taper Now, Even If Economy Not Ready
    By Matthew J. Belvedere | CNBC – 6 hours ago Friday, June 7, 2013
    http://finance.yahoo.com/…/greenspan-taper-now-even…

    finance.yahoo.com

    Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told CNBC on Friday that the central bank sho…See More

2014 Perfect Storm Over So. America, Asia, South Africa & Turkey

Jan. 31, 2014: HAPPY LUNAR NEW YEAR (Year of the Horse – Another wild bronco ride for the stock markets, unless . . . )

The mainstream media in the Philippines is working overtime to distract people’s attention from the more serious and devastating crisis. Filipino oligarchs, politicians and media are trying to divert the people’s attention from the global currency crisis i.e. strengthening US dollar against emerging market currencies around the globe.

It’s the “Perfect Storm” Syndrome once again from six-months ago that hit the Philippines on Aug. 5, 2013 when Phil. Airlines started cancelling non-dollar revenue domestic flights.

The 2013 Perfect Storm started in the U.S. on June 19, 2013 see:  https://www.nedmacario.us/the-perfect-storm-has-arrived-june-19-2013/

Then moved on to Asia on Aug. 19 with the Indonesian stock market crash. It ended on Aug. 23, 2013 with the South African stock market correction but not after currency sell off including India, Brazil and Mexico.

Perfect Storm Over Asia All the Way to South Africa – Aug. 19 to 23, 2013

This year it started in Argentina on Jan. 23, 2014 when the Argentine Central Bank ran out of US dollar reserves.

News: Do cry for me Argentina? Peso plunges

By Jesse Solomon  @JesseSolomonCNN January 24, 2014: 12:46 PM ET

http://money.cnn.com/2014/01/24/investing/argentina-peso-slide/

Speaking to CNN’s Richard Quest from the World Economic Forum in Davos this week, IMF chief Christine Lagarde said her organization would like to learn more about Argentina’s finances.

“We would like to go under the skin of any economy in the IMF,” she said, adding that a call from the Argentinean government “would be more than welcome.”

But there’s no question that the situation in Argentina is worrisome.

=========================

S&P 500 Slides Most Since June on Emerging Market Turmoil
By Nick Taborek Jan 24, 2014 1:54 PM PT 175 Comments Email Print
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-24/u-s-stock-futures-decline-on-emerging-market-currencies.html

U.S. stocks sank the most since June, capping the worst week for benchmark indexes since 2012, as a selloff in developing-nation currencies spurred concern global markets will become more volatile.

===============

Argentina’s Currency Falls Sharply Against the Dollar, Stirring Inflation Fears

By SIMON ROMERO JAN. 23, 2014

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/24/world/americas/argentinas-currency-falls-sharply-against-the-dollar-stirring-inflation-fears.html?_r=0

RIO DE JANEIRO — Argentina’s currency, the peso, plunged more than 8 percent on Thursday against the dollar after the country’s central bank tried to stem a decline in international reserves. The sharp decline, with the peso dropping the most since Argentina’s 2002 financial crisis, raises concerns that inflation could accelerate even further.

Since the start of the year, the Argentine peso has weakened 18 percent, ranking it among the world’s worst-performing currencies against the dollar. President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s cabinet chief, Jorge Capitanich, insisted on Thursday that the plunge was not a devaluation but the result of the forces of supply and demand.

====================

Here’s a good article on the 2014 currency crisis in the emerging markets

A global tour of the emerging-markets currency crunch

By Tim Fernholz @timfernholz January 26, 2014

http://qz.com/170776/a-global-tour-of-the-emerging-markets-currency-crunch/

====================

And the price the U.S. stock market paid for the 2014 Perfect Storm & Tapering

Market Close Friday, January 31, 2014

Dow Jones                15,698.85      -149.76 (-0.94%)

S&P 500                      1,782.59         -11.60 (-0.65%)

Nasdaq                      4,103.88          -19.25 (-0.47%)

Gold                             1,265.10           +1.14%

Crude Oil                         97.41          -0.01%

EUR/USD                     1.3489           -0.02%

10-Yr Bond                   2.6680           -0.93%

GBP/USD                     1.6439           +0.0030%

USD/JPY                 102.0950           +0.11%

=====================

Market Close Wed. Jan. 29, 2014

 

Dow Jones    15,738.79      -189.77           (-1.19%)

S&P 500        1,774.20           -18.30           (-1.02%)

Nasdaq          4,051.43           -46.53           (-1.14%)

Gold                1,265.10           +1.14%

Crude Oil            97.41           -0.01%

EUR/USD         1.3655          +0.02%

10-Yr Bond        2.6750          -2.59%

GBP/USD          1.6555           -0.08%

USD/JPY         102.335          -0.98%

================

Fed pulls back further on bond-buying stimulus despite market jitters

By Don Lee

January 29, 2014, 11:36 a.m.

http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-fed-policy-20140129,0,6773270.story#axzz2roxPsVe6

===========================

 

Comparative Chart of Selected Austronesian Languages

 AUSTRONESIAN PEOPLES do not include the Papuan and Australian Natives.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austronesian_peoples

Austronesians,[4] Austronesian peoples[5] or Austronesian-speaking peoples[6] are various populations in Asia, Oceania and Africa that speak languages of theAustronesian family. They include FORMOSAN (Taiwanese) aborigines; the majority ethnic groups of Malaysia, East Timor, PHILIPPINES, Indonesia, Brunei, Singapore, Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Madagascar, Micronesia, and Polynesia, as well as the Polynesian peoples of New Zealand and Hawaii, and the non-Papuan people of Melanesia. They are also found in the MINORITIES of the Pattani region of THAILAND, the Cham areas in VIETNAM, CAMBODIA, and Hainan, parts of Sri Lanka, southern Myanmar and certain islands of the Andaman Islands. The territories populated by Austronesian-speaking peoples are known collectively as Austronesia.

COMPARISON CHART OF SELECTED AUSTRONESIAN LANGUAGESAustronesian Vocabulary Comparison Chart p1

Austronesian Vocabulary Comparison Chart p2

Austronesian Vocabulary Comparison Chart p3 Austronesian Vocabulary Comparison Chart p4