Emerging Market Crisis & the Philippines

“It is no coincidence that the 2013 Perfect Storm finished devastating the stock markets around the world by Aug. 23, 2013. Exactly five (5) years from the 2008 Financial crisis’ event horizon.”

Feb 2, 2014 – Is the worst of the emerging market contagion over?

This is to follow-up my answer to a question last night. As you know there is a currency crisis in the emerging markets. And the U.S. stock market has been dropping because of this. (I call it the Perfect Storm Syndrome).

According to this article, there will be MORE bloodletting this week. The stocks are expected to be SLAUGHTERED. I can’t understand why Washington DC still wouldn’t act on my request for NATIVE AMERICAN STATUS.

Excerpts: “The wildfire engulfing the developing world is starting to look very like the currency runs of the past, such as the Asian, Russian and Latin American collapses that began in 1997.

First is the scale of money that has moved to developing markets over the past decade and now dwarfs the sums which fled in panic 15 years ago.

“We are in full-blown financial contagion mode. There is no point spending too much time trying to pick and choose when faced with a severe market crisis like the one we are witnessing,” said Benoit Anne, head of emerging markets strategy at Societe Generale. He added: “Right now, sell everything.”

Emerging markets have been inflated in recent years by huge amounts of cheap cash created by the US Federal Reserve, much if which found its way into developing economies in the hunt for better returns. With the Fed scaling back the programme, that flow is reversing and the currencies of countries with the biggest economic and political problems — notably Argentina and Turkey — are diving.”

From: Emerging markets brace for the worst

Need to work out mechanisms not to get caught in another loop of capital flight

By Sujata Rao, Daniel Bases and Vidya Ranganathan

Published: 13:28 February 2, 2014Gulf News

http://gulfnews.com/business/features/emerging-markets-brace-for-the-worst-1.1285192

========================================

There is a global crisis in Emerging Markets. While they distract the majority, the Philippines should work out its own solutions. This is what the Philippines should be concerned. Example:

Swiss Mining Giant pulling out of the $5.9B Copper-Gold project in the Philippines 02-02-14
POLITICAL TIDBITS
http://www.polbits.com/2014/02/planned-divestment-of-swiss-mining.html

Sad news for prospects of foreign investments in the Philippines: reports say Swiss mining giant Glencore Xstrata has indicated to its Melbourne-based partner Indophil Resources NL a “preference” to divest of its interest in the $5.9 billion Tampakan copper-gold project in North Cotabato, the Sagittarius Mines, Inc. Reports say Glencore Xstrata has been considering this move since April last year due to considerable delays in the project.

Indophil Resources NL says it would try to work out a solution, but if this divestment happens, it could severely affect foreign investments in our country.
===================

Ernest Chua sooner or later currency will be reverted back to gold standard, keeping our gold mineral might actually be good for the country

Bienvenido Macario I don’t know the details of the plan to go back to the gold standard but going back to gold standard like it used to be will be an unmitigated disaster. The present system is good. The problem is that very few understand what it is and how it should work. 

“Even the experts don’t quite know what’s going on.” – Paul Volcker

Paul Volcker: Economic Crisis May Be Worse Than Great Depression
EILEEN AJ CONNELLY 02/20/09 06:29 PM ET 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/02/20/paul-volcker-financial-cr_n_168772.html

From: Understanding Greenspan, Bernank: The Fed Speak Translator 2 

https://www.nedmacario.us/2013/12/09/understanding-greenspan-bernanke-the-fed-speak-translator-2/

Bienvenido Macario: Take off from this excerpt: “And by Sept. 2008, the Financial Crisis of 2008 was upon us. The event horizon turned out to be Aug. 24, 2008 as discussed in one the papers. – “
From: Understanding Greenspan, Bernanke: The Fed Speak Translator 2

Fast forward to 23 Aug. 2013 – The Perfect Storm Over Asia All the Way through South Africa – Aug. 19 to 23, 2013

Perfect Storm Over Asia All the Way to South Africa – Aug. 19 to 23, 2013

I was able to pinpoint the exact event horizon or point of no return and the start of the crisis as Aug. 24, 2008.

It is no coincidence that the 2013 Perfect Storm finished devastating the stock markets around the world by Aug. 23, 2013. Exactly five (5) years from the 2008 Financial crisis’ event horizon.

Bienvenido Macario –  The Philippines is still RECOGNIZED as an independent and sovereign country. This means they can do anything they want. This is why I’m urging the U.S. and other countries to withdraw its recognition.

I really prefer to live and let live. Those who want to preserve the status quo should be allowed to do so at the same time we should be allowed to form our own country in our own ancestral land and seek recognition from key countries.

I am confident that it is really better for the entire global economy that we are allowed to lead our own lives, have our own country & government. 

Live and let them leave us alone. If the status quo in the Philippines insists on having one country then, Cory Aquino and Manuel A. Roxas must be posthumously tried for treason. There are overwhelming evidence to prove these high crimes.

Allegations that Danding Cojuangco was behind the murder of Ninoy Aquino should be investigated, among others. 

Since it is safe to assume that everyone in the Philippines was poor at the end of WWII, the source of wealth of the 1,000 richest families of the Philippines should be investigated.

Excerpt: “Worse, the World Bank gave a $3.7 billion loan to the Philippines in October 2011 and another $300 million last July 13, 2013. There might be other loans, grants, and aid I am not aware of. I’ve excluded the $150 million donations from the international community for the typhoon relief efforts.

The Philippines is a former US territory and this country has a special responsibility to those islands and its people. We should stop funding oppression and the undemocratic oligarchy in the Philippines, withdraw our Ambassador and encourage others to do the same.”

From: German Genocide in Namibia; US Genocide in Philippines? (Bienvenido Macario, USA) Wed, Jan 15, 2014

http://waisworld.org/go.jsp?id=02a&objectType=post&o=81904&objectTypeId=70851&topicId=17

 

 

Super Bowl 2014 & the Emerging Market Contagion Feb. 2, 2014

Feb. 2, 2014

Note the similarity of today’s SUPER BOWL finish with example of this Perfect Storm Syndrome cycle that started on June 19, 2013.

Excerpt: “During Reagan’s time interest went up as high as 20% (June 1981). During Eisenhower’s time tax rates was as high as 90%!

Someone gave a good analogy using a football game where your team is behind by 27 points with less than 10 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. Are you going to wait for the game to finish or head out and avoid the traffic? The same with the Fed’s stimulus cut back.

You want to dump your stocks while you still can. After a certain price point, might as well hold on to it.”

From: “The Perfect Storm Has Arrived” – June 19, 2013

The Perfect Storm Has Arrived – June 19, 2013

This is to follow-up my answer to a question last night. As you know there is a currency crisis in the emerging markets. And the U.S. stock market has been dropping because of this.
I call it the “Perfect Storm Syndrome” 06/03/2005.

According to this article, there will be MORE bloodletting this week. The stocks are expected to be SLAUGHTERED. I can’t understand why Washington DC still wouldn’t act on my request for NATIVE AMERICAN STATUS.

Excerpts: “The wildfire engulfing the developing world is starting to look very like the currency runs of the past, such as the Asian, Russian and Latin American collapses that began in 1997.

First is the scale of money that has moved to developing markets over the past decade and now dwarfs the sums which fled in panic 15 years ago.

“We are in full-blown financial contagion mode. There is no point spending too much time trying to pick and choose when faced with a severe market crisis like the one we are witnessing,” said Benoit Anne, head of emerging markets strategy at Societe Generale. He added: “Right now, sell everything.”

Emerging markets have been inflated in recent years by huge amounts of cheap cash created by the US Federal Reserve, much if which found its way into developing economies in the hunt for better returns. With the Fed scaling back the programme, that flow is reversing and the currencies of countries with the biggest economic and political problems — notably Argentina and Turkey — are diving.”

Emerging markets brace for the worst
Need to work out mechanisms not to get caught in another loop of capital flight
By Sujata Rao, Daniel Bases and Vidya Ranganathan
Published: 13:28 February 2, 2014Gulf News
http://gulfnews.com/business/features/emerging-markets-brace-for-the-worst-1.1285192

=======================

There is a global crisis in Emerging Markets. While they distract the majority, the Philippines should work out its own solutions. This is what the Philippines should be concerned. Example:

Swiss Mining Giant pulling out of the $5.9B Copper-Gold project in the Philippines 02-02-14
POLITICAL TIDBITS
http://www.polbits.com/2014/02/planned-divestment-of-swiss-mining.html

Sad news for prospects of foreign investments in the Philippines: reports say Swiss mining giant Glencore Xstrata has indicated to its Melbourne-based partner Indophil Resources NL a “preference” to divest of its interest in the $5.9 billion Tampakan copper-gold project in North Cotabato, the Sagittarius Mines, Inc. Reports say Glencore Xstrata has been considering this move since April last year due to considerable delays in the project.

Indophil Resources NL says it would try to work out a solution, but if this divestment happens, it could severely affect foreign investments in our country.
===================

Ernest Chua sooner or later currency will be reverted back to gold standard, keeping our gold mineral might actually be good for the country

Bienvenido Macario I don’t know the details of the plan to go back to the gold standard but going back to gold standard like it used to be will be an unmitigated disaster. The present system is good. The problem is that very few understand what it is and how it should work. 

“Even the experts don’t quite know what’s going on.” – Paul Volcker

Paul Volcker: Economic Crisis May Be Worse Than Great Depression
EILEEN AJ CONNELLY 02/20/09 06:29 PM ET 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/02/20/paul-volcker-financial-cr_n_168772.html

From: Understanding Greenspan, Bernank: The Fed Speak Translator 2 

https://www.nedmacario.us/2013/12/09/understanding-greenspan-bernanke-the-fed-speak-translator-2/

Bienvenido Macario: Take off from this excerpt: “And by Sept. 2008, the Financial Crisis of 2008 was upon us. The event horizon turned out to be Aug. 24, 2008 as discussed in one the papers. – “
From: Understanding Greenspan, Bernanke: The Fed Speak Translator 2

Fast forward to 23 Aug. 2013 – The Perfect Storm Over Asia All the Way through South Africa – Aug. 19 to 23, 2013

Perfect Storm Over Asia All the Way to South Africa – Aug. 19 to 23, 2013

I was able to pinpoint the exact event horizon or point of no return and the start of the crisis as Aug. 24, 2008.

It is no coincidence that the 2013 Perfect Storm finished devastating the stock markets around the world by Aug. 23, 2013. Exactly five (5) years from the 2008 Financial crisis’ event horizon.

Bienvenido Macario –  The Philippines is still RECOGNIZED as an independent and sovereign country. This means they can do anything they want. This is why I’m urging the U.S. and other countries to withdraw its recognition.

I really prefer to live and let live. Those who want to preserve the status quo should be allowed to do so at the same time we should be allowed to form our own country in our own ancestral land and seek recognition from key countries.

I am confident that it is really better for the entire global economy that we are allowed to lead our own lives, have our own country & government. 

Live and let them leave us alone. If the status quo in the Philippines insists on having one country then, Cory Aquino and Manuel A. Roxas must be posthumously tried for treason. There are overwhelming evidence to prove these high crimes.

Allegations that Danding Cojuangco was behind the murder of Ninoy Aquino should be investigated, among others. 

Since it is safe to assume that everyone in the Philippines was poor at the end of WWII, the source of wealth of the 1,000 richest families of the Philippines should be investigated.

Excerpt: “Worse, the World Bank gave a $3.7 billion loan to the Philippines in October 2011 and another $300 million last July 13, 2013. There might be other loans, grants, and aid I am not aware of. I’ve excluded the $150 million donations from the international community for the typhoon relief efforts.

The Philippines is a former US territory and this country has a special responsibility to those islands and its people. We should stop funding oppression and the undemocratic oligarchy in the Philippines, withdraw our Ambassador and encourage others to do the same.”

From: German Genocide in Namibia; US Genocide in Philippines? (Bienvenido Macario, USA) Wed, Jan 15, 2014

http://waisworld.org/go.jsp?id=02a&objectType=post&o=81904&objectTypeId=70851&topicId=17

 

2013 Perfect Storm Prediction dated June 5, 2013 impact date June 19, 2013

Bienvenido Macario shared a link.
June 5, 2013 near Riverside, CA

PREDICTION TIME: Ok, here we go. May 27, 2013 WAIS post: “According to the story below, the Fed could cut back on the stimulus bond buying “sooner than expected.” This will likely result in higher Treasury yields and a slide in stocks. I think it’s time for analysts, investors, and businesses to really work and stop relying on government stimulus.

How the Fed could ruin your summer holiday
By Luciana Lopez | Reuters – Sunday, May 26, 2013

JE comments: We caught some “sell in May” behavior at the tail end of last week. I don’t have the stomach for any summertime correction (who does?), but the market has been a bit too exuberant of late.

USA (America) – Fed to End Stimulus? (Bienvenido Macario, USA) Mon, May 27, 2013 at 2:36 PM
http://waisworld.org/go.jsp?id=02a3&objectType=post&o=77040

WAIS – World Association for International Studies
waisworld.org
Founded in 1965 at Stanford University by Prof. Ronald Hilton (1911-2007), WAIS is a political, economic, and religious forum moderated by John Eipper, Adrian College. Contributing members include scholars, journalists, professors, military professionals and business leaders from around the world.
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  • Bienvenido Macario I think the dust will settle around June 22, 2013
    Dow drops -209 on Fri. 05-31-13

    Dow Jones 15,115.57 -208.96 (-1.36%)
    S&P 500 1,630.74 -23.7 (-1.43%)
    Nasdaq 3,455.91 -22.31 ( %)

    Dow drops -217 Today Wed. 06-05-13

    Dow Jones 14,960.59 -216.95 (-1.43%)
    S&P 500 1,608.90 -22.48 (-1.38%)
    Nasdaq 3,401.48 -43.78 (-1.27%)
  • Bienvenido Macario Why do I think “the dust will settle around 22 June (2013)”? Because the Fed has yet to cut back on the stimulus. But in the mean time today Wed. 06/05/13 mortgage interest rates went UP from 3.6% to 4.07%. High interest rate is a component of the “Perfect Storm Syndrome”- global edition.

    For me, and this is just me, it doesn’t matter how high or low the interest or tax rates are as long as corporations and businesses know how to anticipate the coming challenges. (Please see on my website: Paper No. VIII – Forecast on Businesses & Industries –5/21/2004 updated 11/16/2012 ).

    During Reagan’s time interest went up as high as 20% (June 1981). During Eisenhower’s time tax rates was as high as 90%! 

    Someone gave a good analogy using a football game where your team is behind by 27 points with less than 10 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. Are you going to wait for the game to finish or head out and avoid the traffic? The same with the Fed’s stimulus cut back. You want to dump your stocks while you still can. After a certain price point, might as well hold on to it.

    Mortgage interest rates reach the four percent mark
    Rates jumped from 3.6% to 4.07%
    Published : Wednesday, 05 Jun 2013, 10:30 PM EDT
    http://www.wwlp.com/…/mortgage-interest-rates-reach-the…

    www.wwlp.com

    Mortgage interest rates have broken the 4 percent mark for the first time in a y…See More
  • Bienvenido Macario Ok this one is from Oct. 18, 2009, more than three years ago.

    “The components of the Perfect Storm Syndrome-Global Edition are: HIGH OIL PRICES; HIGH INTEREST RATES (COMING SOON TO A MORTGAGE NEAR YOU!) and a strong dollar. While the domestic components of the Perfect Storm contagion are: HEALTH CARE (high costs); RETIREMENT/PENSION (lack thereof) and EDUCATION (this is the biggest challenge of all as the strong dollar is in the global edition).

    The financial system is now in crisis for lack of cash and credit in all sectors of society.

    As of last week the US Treasury quietly abandoned the pursuit of a “strong dollar” and the stock market rose. 

    I am not in favor of a weak US Dollar, but currencies and liquids behave exactly the same: water seeks its own level. 

    re: Capitalism and Democracy (Bienvenido Macario, Philippines/US)
    Posted on October 18th, 2009 
    http://waisworld.org/go.jsp?id=02a0&objectType=post…

    waisworld.org

    Founded in 1965 at Stanford University by Prof. Ronald Hilton (1911-2007), WAIS…See More
  • Bienvenido Macario Maybe this coming “June swoon” (since the “Sell-in-May-&-go-away” didn’t happen) is a blessing in disguise. Who knows analysts, investors and businesses are good when they panic. PANIC!!!

    Excerpt from 19 May 2010 Warning by Paul Volcker: 

    May 19 (Bloomberg) — Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, a top outside adviser to President Barack Obama, said time is “growing short” for the U.S. to address problems ranging from its budget deficit to Social Security obligations.

    “We better get started,” the 82-year-old former central banker said in a speech yesterday in Stanford , California . “Today’s concerns may soon become tomorrow’s existential crises.”

    Volcker, speaking hours after the euro fell to a four-year low against the dollar, said Europe demonstrates for the U.S. the hazards of “uncontrolled borrowing.” The European currency slid below $1.22 for the first time since April 2006 as a ban by German authorities on certain bearish investments fueled concern the region’s sovereign debt woes will worsen.

    “Little has happened to allay my concerns” raised five years ago (2005) that “dangerous and intractable” problems were rising in the U.S. , said Volcker, chairman of the president’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board.

    “Intractable not just because of the combination of complicated issues, but because there seemed to be so little willingness or capacity to do much about it,” he said during a dinner at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.

    “In the United States , we don’t seem to me to share the same sense of urgency” as countries such as Ireland , Volcker said in his speech. “THE TIME WE HAVE IS GROWING SHORT” and “there are serious questions, most immediately about the sustainability of our commitment to growing entitlement programs.”

    In addition, Volcker said the U.S. MUST REBUILD ITS MORTGAGE MARKET FROM “the ground up” and higher capital requirements alone won’t be enough to prevent the next crisis.

    Volcker Says Time Is Running Out for U.S. to Tackle Fiscal Woes
    May 19, 2010, 3:16 AM EDT By Vivien Lou Chen
    http://www.businessweek.com/…/volcker-says-time-is…

    www.businessweek.com

    June 3 (Bloomberg) — The 800-acre Scottish Island of Tanera Mor has recently be…See More
  • Bienvenido Macario Why my consulting business would be very challenging. It is not enough that I have specific answers or a plethora of options for industries or businesses. The major obstacle is explaining the solutions when they do not have the same appraisal of the situation. Income from ads is more viable than consulting.

    In this article as early as Feb. 20, 2009, Paul Volcker hinted on the need to overhaul the mortgage industry from the ground up.

    Personally, my concern is intellectual property rights. I mean in the financial world, a new product or system is copied and improved within 48 hours of its initial launch. And this was in 1989!

    I’m confident with my surveys and systems analysis, design and monitoring of solutions but I must have a five-year lead/exclusivity guaranteed by the U.S. and other industrialized governments including the emerging markets.

    Otherwise the best option is total financial market meltdown. Then everything must start from the ground up, not just the mortgage market.
    =========================
    NEW YORK — “EVEN THE EXPERTS DON’T QUITE KNOW WHAT’S GOING ON.” – Paul Volcker, Feb. 20, 2009

    Speaking to a number of those experts Friday, Paul Volcker, a top economic adviser to President Barack Obama, cited not only the lack of understanding of the global financial meltdown but the “shocking” speed with which it had spread across the world.

    “One year ago, we would have said things were tough in the United States, but the rest of the world was holding up,” Volcker told a conference featuring Nobel laureates, economists and investors at Columbia University in New York. “The rest of the world has not held up.”

    In fact, the 81-year-old former chairman of the Federal Reserve said, “I don’t remember any time, maybe even the Great Depression, when things went down quite so fast.”

    He noted that industrial production is falling in countries across the globe faster than in the U.S., one result of the decline caused by the breakdown of unbridled financial markets that operated on a global scale.

    Volcker – Economic Crisis May Be Worse Than Great Depression
    Paul Volcker: Economic Crisis May Be Worse Than Great Depression
    NEW YORK — “Even the experts don’t quite know what’s going on.”
    EILEEN AJ CONNELLY Feb. 20, 2009 06:29 PM ET 
    EILEEN AJ CONNELLY 02/20/09 06:29 PM ET 
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…/paul-volcker-financial…

    www.huffingtonpost.com

    NEW YORK — “Even the experts don’t quite know what’s going on.” Speaking to a nu…See More
  • Bienvenido Macario This recommendation from Greenspan came in today: “Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told CNBC on Friday that the central bank should taper its $85 billion a month bond buying even if the U.S. economy is not ready for it. (Read More Below the Video.)

    “The sooner we come to grips with this excessive level of assets on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve-that everybody agrees is excessive-the better,” he said in a ” Squawk Box ” interview. “There is a general presumption that we can wait indefinitely and make judgments on when we’re going to move. I’m not sure the market will allow us to do that.”

    But if the Fed moves too quickly in reining in its accommodative policies, he added, it could shock the market, which is already dealing with a very large element of uncertainty.

    Greenspan said he’s not sure the markets will allow an easy exit. “Gradual is adequate, but we’ve got to get moving.”

    Greenspan: Taper Now, Even If Economy Not Ready
    By Matthew J. Belvedere | CNBC – 6 hours ago Friday, June 7, 2013
    http://finance.yahoo.com/…/greenspan-taper-now-even…

    finance.yahoo.com

    Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told CNBC on Friday that the central bank sho…See More