Sept. 21, 2017
One-year PhD program at Stanford for Engineering
On Jan. 31, 2007 in a WAIS post, Gene Franklin mentioned about the 1-yr. PhD program at Stanford. It was under this format that I started making forecasts and predictions on the WAIS forum and proving that my calculations were right.
See: Education: Is a Four-Year College for Everyone? (Gene Franklin, US) 01/31/07 4:22 am
http://waisworld.org/go.jsp?id=02a&objectType=post&o=13289&objectTypeId=7539&topicId=1
I have five (5) papers posted on WAIS where predictions were made and it came to pass.
The Five Papers Posted on the WAIS Forum:
1.) The Perfect Storm – A Forecast June 3, 2005 posted on WAIS Oct. 18, 2009
2.) The Great Recession – Forecast Dec. 15, 2007 ©copyright
3.) Zero Sum Game of Global Finance*~ – 3rd Edition 10-07-08 ©copyright
4.) Wal-Martism: A Paper On the Retail Industry – July 31, 2007
5.) The 2012 Euro Zone Recession (but Ireland will be spared) Sept. 3, 2012
5.a) Paper No. VIII: the 2012 EU Recession Reaches the USA
(Based on the original E-mail dated May 21, 2004 updated Fri.
Nov. 16, 2012)
Most of my papers are listed in this post:
Happy Birthday America!
https://www.nedmacario.us/2014/07/05/happy-birthday-america/
Excerpt: “The closest thing we have, in my view, to Krajcsik’s idea is the PhD. Here there are only two requirements: 1) get a committee to accept your thesis as original work; 2) Defend that contribution before a committee at a meeting to which any member of the academic faculty may attend and participate.
Many years ago, when Stanford began an active program of remote classes in Engineering, broadcast to local industries, we added the requirement that every PhD candidate had to spend at least one academic year on campus as a full-time student to get this minimum benefit from the on-campus interactions. I strongly supported and support that minimum requirement.
re: Education: Is a Four-Year College for Everyone? (Gene Franklin, US) 01/31/07 4:22 am
http://waisworld.org/go.jsp?id=02a&objectType=post&o=13289&objectTypeId=7539&topicId=1
Papers Posted on the WAIS Forum
1.) The Perfect Storm – A Forecast June 3, 2005 (Posted on WAIS Oct. 18, 2009)
Excerpt: “BM: I’m not sure if the major players in the (US) financial system support the Bush and Obama administrations’ efforts to compel China to properly price their undervalued Yuan against the US dollar, among other currencies. Whether these players were also in favor of a “strong dollar” that both the Bush administration and Treasury Sec. Geithner were seeking is not clear. As of last week, the US Treasury quietly abandoned the pursuit of a “strong dollar” and the stock market rose.
I am not in favor of a weak US Dollar either, but currencies and liquids behave exactly the same: water seeks its own level.
Date: Fri, 3 Jun 2005 22:46:05 -0700 (PDT) +++
From: Bienvenido Macario <laspinassja@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: new development here / “The Perfect Storm”
The components of the Perfect Storm Syndrome-Global Edition are:
- High oil prices;
- High interest rates (coming soon to a mortgage near you) and
- A strong dollar.
While the domestic components of the Perfect Storm contagion are:
- Health care (high costs);
- Retirement/pension (lack thereof) and
- Education (this is the biggest challenge of all as the strong dollar is in the global edition).
In my opinion, the root cause of the present financial crisis, in one word, is “globalization.” I have never seen any financial analyst offer an assessment on the financial market status from a global perspective. They all offer observations from the G-7 perspective, as if the rest of the G-20 nations do not count.
In 2002 in the aftermath of Enron, Paul Volcker made very sensible suggestions but the US Congress decided to “perform for the media and their constituents” and enacted the Sarbanes-Oxley instead. Of course, we all know what Bernie Madoff did. And so, with SOX notwithstanding, how come Bernie Madoff managed to pull a huge ponzi scheme? (Or the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the start of the 2008 Financial Crisis.)
BM: During the times of growth and expansion, the private sector should also credited with bringing prosperity to the country and around the world, not just the US Congress and the Federal Reserve Bank. Banks and financial institutions provided jobs, payroll taxes, paid corporate income taxes and lobbied hard as well. The government should bail them out if need be to avoid the collapse of our financial system.
Investment banks like Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan-Chase and Merrill Lynch are all having a heck of a time trying to compete with the “Wal-Mart” of investment bankers, Goldman Sachs.
Just because there is a financial crisis, employees of firms that perform well should not be punished. They should be rewarded. Why is the government not forcing Wal-Mart to share its corporate secret with other retailers? Why punish Goldman Sachs for being the one successful investment banker during this (first ever) marathon recession?
When was the US Congress ever punished for passing bad laws like Sarbanes Oxley Act of 2002 and the Oct. 2008 bailout law? Is this democracy?
What if America’s big banks and financial institutions were to seek the IMF-World Bank-UN immunity from any responsibility or accountability? What if these banks and institutions would refuse to go to business unless they also are granted the same immunity as that of the IMF, World Bank, UN, OECD, Asian Development Bank and such?
+++ – From the original email The Perfect (Financial) Storm sent 3 June 2005
re: Capitalism and Democracy (The Perfect Storm) (Bienvenido Macario, Philippines/US) October 18th, 2009
http://waisworld.org/go.jsp?id=02a&objectType=post&o=45697&objectTypeId=39947&topicId=92
2.) The Great Recession – Forecast Dec. 15, 2007 ©copyright
Background:
On Friday Dec. 15, 2006, I emailed relatives, friends and colleagues the Yahoo News: Real Estate Expected To Flounder in 2007 with a short discussion on the coming Perfect Storm and that the subprime meltdown will happen on March 15, 2007. See: Real Estate Forecast 15 Dec. 2006 Impact date: 15 March 2007
Real Estate Forecast 15 Dec. 2006 Impact Date 15 March 2007: https://www.nedmacario.us/real-estate-forecast-15-dec-2006-impact-date-15-march-2007/
By May 29, 2007 the first sign that the subprime crisis is heading to Europe from where the demand for exotic derivatives promoted by credit rating agencies helped fuel the subprime bubble in the U.S. Sept. 28, 2007 was the date I picked when the Perfect Storm will reach the EU more specifically Germany.
See: Perfect Storm Over Europe – Sept. 28, 2007
Perfect Storm Over Europe Sept. 28, 2007
After the Perfect Storm wreaked havoc in Euro Zone, it started its way back to the U.S. and this time the mortgage crisis will snowball into the Great Recession of 2008. This is the forecast made on Dec. 15, 2007 as posted on the World Association of International Studies (WAIS)
Prediction:
Excerpt: “(1) If by March 2008 the private sector has done nothing for themselves, meaning they continue to rely on lowering or holding interest rates at their current level, then we’ll be heading into a recession. (2) The thing is the Federal Reserve Bank officers are not supposed to give direct advice or suggestions to the private sector. (3) TV financial/market news present interviews of guests and analysts, but nothing seems to be done. It makes you wonder if these guests and TV show hosts really know what is going on.
(1) I repeat my reminder: the private sector has three and half months (April 8, 2008) to do something about the impending recession.
From: US: Greenspan Says Odds Rising for Recession (Bienvenido Macario, Philippines) Dec. 15, 2007
http://qucr.com/go.jsp?id=02a4&objectType=post&o=18799&objectTypeId=13049&topicId=1
Call: https://www.nedmacario.us/the-great-recession-forecast-dec-15-2007/
3.) Zero Sum Game of Global Finance*~ – 3rd Edition 10-07-08 ©copyright
Outstanding mortgages (residential & commercial) Oct. 7, 2008 – $14 Trillion*
Proposed bailout fund or amount of oil the US Imports annually – $ .7 Trillion*
2007 Sovereign Funds, foreign exchange reserves, pension fund – __ $14.7 Trillion*
Stock market losses worldwide for 2008 – $10.2 Trillion~
U.S. National Debt as of Oct. 08, 2008 – $10.2 Trillion~
===================================================
3.) The issue is whether the small amount would be enough to address market confidence. (There are $14 trillion * in outstanding residential and commercial mortgages. $700 billion* or $0.7 trillion is just 5% of the outstanding mortgages.)
From: US: on the Financial Crisis and Bailout (Bienvenido Macario, Philippines) Sept. 25, 2008
Link: http://waisworld.org/go.jsp?id=02a&objectType=post&o=24935&objectTypeId=19185&topicId=1
http://cgi.stanford.edu/group/wais/cgi-bin/?p=19185
Sovereign funds to reach $10 Trillion by 2015 –IFSL
Reuters – Tuesday, April 1, 2008
http://malaysia.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20080331/tbs-swf-ifsl-7318940.html
Including other sovereign investments, such as pension reserve funds or funds owned by state-owned corporations, and other official foreign exchange reserves, sovereign funds in a broader sense hit $14.7 trillion ($14.trillion + $700 billion)* in 2007, International Financial Services London said in a report.
=====================================================
Robert Whealey asked on 6 October:
Jon Kofas’s statistics (5 October) on losses in the stock market world-wide of about 20% ($10.2 trillion~) are frightening. Question: We need a time dimension. Since January 2008? Last month? Since the Bush Presidency?
Jon Kofas responds: The figure is for 2008. Sorry for the lack of clarity on this point.
From:
WAIS post re: US: End of US World Dominance? (Jon Kofas, Greece) 10-07-08
Link: http://waisworld.org/go.jsp?id=02a&objectType=post&o=26467&objectTypeId=20717&topicId=1
===================================
NYC National Debt Clock runs out of digits
Wednesday Oct 8, 2008 10:03 PM ET
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081009/ap_on_re_us/odd_national_debt_clock_5
NEW YORK – In a sign of the times, the National Debt Clock in New York City has run out of digits to record the growing figure.
As a short-term fix, the digital dollar sign on the billboard-style clock near Times Square has been switched to a figure — the “1” in $10 trillion. It’s marking the federal government’s current debt at about $10.2 trillion~.
The Durst Organization says it plans to update the sign next year by adding two digits. That will make it capable of tracking debt up to a quadrillion dollars.
The late Manhattan real estate developer Seymour Durst put the sign up in 1989 to call attention to what was then a $2.7 trillion debt.
Your Family share: $86,017.00
~ – Zero Sum Game of Global Finance – 3rd Edition
Bienvenido Macario
4.) Wal-Martism: A Paper On the Retail Industry – July 31, 2007
PREDICTION:
Excerpt: “WAISers should read the book and hopefully like me, they would discover Wal-Mart’s secret to success. (And how Wal-Mart is in fact 2 even 3 steps ahead of other industries and its closest competitor.) Wal-Mart seeks to provide the goods people want at low prices. It’s the exact opposite of the equally successful Nordstrom’s. And anything is the middle will soon be in trouble or is currently struggling unless they learn how to compete against Wal-Mart. Wal-Mart is not doing anything illegal or unethical, I think. “
From: re: Wal-Martism: A Religion? (Bienvenido Macario, Philippines; John Eipper, US) (John Eipper, USA, 07/31/07 8:29 am)
http://waisworld.org/go.jsp?id=02a&objectType=post&o=16383&objectTypeId=10633&topicId=1
Call: https://www.nedmacario.us/the-retail-industry-wal-martism-july-31-2007/
5.) The 2012 Euro Zone Recession (but Ireland will be spared.)
– Sept. 3, 2012
PREDICTION:
Excerpt: “Happy Labor Day! For Ireland, 12.5% tax of SOMETHING is better than 35%, or as Romney proposed 25%, of NOTHING.
Then there is the EU debt crisis, which I believe will officially put Europe in recession by September 20 or 21, 2012. One way or another, the US economy will be affected by a European recession.”
From: World Economy – More US Firms Move Abroad; on the ‘Fiscal Cliff’ (Bienvenido Macario, USA) Mon, Sep 3, 2012 at 5:13 AM
http://waisworld.org/go.jsp?id=02a&objectType=post&o=71880&objectTypeId=64641&topicId=196
And
More US Firms Move Abroad (Bienvenido Macario, USA, 08/30/12 5:24 pm)
http://waisworld.org/go.jsp?id=02a&l=en&objectType=post&o=71825&objectTypeId=64600&topicId=196
Call: https://www.nedmacario.us/2013/11/18/the-great-recession-eus-turn-again-2012/
Aug. 2016 update:
This is from four (4) years ago. On Sept. 3, 2012 I predicted the EU will be in recession by Sept. 20 or 21, 2012 except Ireland.
By Aug. 30, 2016 here’s the news:
UPDATE 30 AUGUST 2016
Why Ireland Doesn’t Want Apple’s $14.5 Billion in Back Taxes Aug. 30, 2016
By Dara Doyle and Peter Flanagan – August 30, 2016 — 6:37 AM PDT
Apple’s $14.5 Billion unpaid EU taxes: Press conference and Q&A by Margrethe Vestager Published on Aug 30, 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-n11tM-kX94
Call: Impact of the Sep 2012 EU recession to the US economy.
5.a) The 2012 EU Recession reaches the U.S. (Paper No. VIII: Original E-mail dated May 21, 2004 updated Fri. Nov. 16, 2012)
