2013 Perfect Storm Prediction dated June 5, 2013 impact date June 19, 2013

Bienvenido Macario I think the dust will settle around June 22, 2013
Dow drops -209 on Fri. 05-31-13

Dow Jones 15,115.57 -208.96 (-1.36%)
S&P 500 1,630.74 -23.7 (-1.43%)
Nasdaq 3,455.91 -22.31 ( %)

Dow drops -217 Today Wed. 06-05-13

Dow Jones 14,960.59 -216.95 (-1.43%)
S&P 500 1,608.90 -22.48 (-1.38%)
Nasdaq 3,401.48 -43.78 (-1.27%)

June 5, 2013 at 6:32pm · Like

Bienvenido Macario Why do I think “the dust will settle around 22 June (2013)”? Because the Fed has yet to cut back on the stimulus. But in the mean time today Wed. 06/05/13 mortgage interest rates went UP from 3.6% to 4.07%. High interest rate is a component of the “Perfect Storm Syndrome”- global edition.

For me, and this is just me, it doesn’t matter how high or low the interest or tax rates are as long as corporations and businesses know how to anticipate the coming challenges. (Please see on my website: Paper No. VIII – Forecast on Businesses & Industries –5/21/2004 updated 11/16/2012 ).

During Reagan’s time interest went up as high as 20% (June 1981). During Eisenhower’s time tax rates was as high as 90%! 

Someone gave a good analogy using a football game where your team is behind by 27 points with less than 10 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. Are you going to wait for the game to finish or head out and avoid the traffic? The same with the Fed’s stimulus cut back. You want to dump your stocks while you still can. After a certain price point, might as well hold on to it.

Mortgage interest rates reach the four percent mark
Rates jumped from 3.6% to 4.07%
Published : Wednesday, 05 Jun 2013, 10:30 PM EDT
http://www.wwlp.com/…/mortgage-interest-rates-reach-the…

June 6, 2013 at 2:32am · Edited · Like · Remove Preview

Bienvenido Macario Ok this one is from Oct. 18, 2009, more than three years ago.

“The components of the Perfect Storm Syndrome-Global Edition are: HIGH OIL PRICES; HIGH INTEREST RATES (COMING SOON TO A MORTGAGE NEAR YOU!) and a strong dollar. While the domestic components of the Perfect Storm contagion are: HEALTH CARE (high costs); RETIREMENT/PENSION (lack thereof) and EDUCATION (this is the biggest challenge of all as the strong dollar is in the global edition).

The financial system is now in crisis for lack of cash and credit in all sectors of society.

As of last week the US Treasury quietly abandoned the pursuit of a “strong dollar” and the stock market rose. 

I am not in favor of a weak US Dollar, but currencies and liquids behave exactly the same: water seeks its own level. 

re: Capitalism and Democracy (Bienvenido Macario, Philippines/US)
Posted on October 18th, 2009 
http://waisworld.org/go.jsp?id=02a0&objectType=post…

June 6, 2013 at 2:11am · Edited · Like · Remove Preview

Bienvenido Macario Maybe this coming “June swoon” (since the “Sell-in-May-&-go-away” didn’t happen) is a blessing in disguise. Who knows analysts, investors and businesses are good when they panic. PANIC!!!

Excerpt from 19 May 2010 Warning by Paul Volcker: 

May 19 (Bloomberg) — Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, a top outside adviser to President Barack Obama, said time is “growing short” for the U.S. to address problems ranging from its budget deficit to Social Security obligations.

“We better get started,” the 82-year-old former central banker said in a speech yesterday in Stanford , California . “Today’s concerns may soon become tomorrow’s existential crises.”

Volcker, speaking hours after the euro fell to a four-year low against the dollar, said Europe demonstrates for the U.S. the hazards of “uncontrolled borrowing.” The European currency slid below $1.22 for the first time since April 2006 as a ban by German authorities on certain bearish investments fueled concern the region’s sovereign debt woes will worsen.

“Little has happened to allay my concerns” raised five years ago (2005) that “dangerous and intractable” problems were rising in the U.S. , said Volcker, chairman of the president’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board.

“Intractable not just because of the combination of complicated issues, but because there seemed to be so little willingness or capacity to do much about it,” he said during a dinner at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.

“In the United States , we don’t seem to me to share the same sense of urgency” as countries such as Ireland , Volcker said in his speech. “THE TIME WE HAVE IS GROWING SHORT” and “there are serious questions, most immediately about the sustainability of our commitment to growing entitlement programs.”

In addition, Volcker said the U.S. MUST REBUILD ITS MORTGAGE MARKET FROM “the ground up” and higher capital requirements alone won’t be enough to prevent the next crisis.

Volcker Says Time Is Running Out for U.S. to Tackle Fiscal Woes
May 19, 2010, 3:16 AM EDT By Vivien Lou Chen
http://www.businessweek.com/…/volcker-says-time-is…

June 6, 2013 at 2:32am · Like · Remove Preview

Bienvenido Macario Why my consulting business would be very challenging. It is not enough that I have specific answers or a plethora of options for industries or businesses. The major obstacle is explaining the solutions when they do not have the same appraisal of the situation. Income from ads is more viable than consulting.

In this article as early as Feb. 20, 2009, Paul Volcker hinted on the need to overhaul the mortgage industry from the ground up.

Personally, my concern is intellectual property rights. I mean in the financial world, a new product or system is copied and improved within 48 hours of its initial launch. And this was in 1989!

I’m confident with my surveys and systems analysis, design and monitoring of solutions but I must have a five-year lead/exclusivity guaranteed by the U.S. and other industrialized governments including the emerging markets.

Otherwise the best option is total financial market meltdown. Then everything must start from the ground up, not just the mortgage market.
=========================
NEW YORK — “EVEN THE EXPERTS DON’T QUITE KNOW WHAT’S GOING ON.” – Paul Volcker, Feb. 20, 2009

Speaking to a number of those experts Friday, Paul Volcker, a top economic adviser to President Barack Obama, cited not only the lack of understanding of the global financial meltdown but the “shocking” speed with which it had spread across the world.

“One year ago, we would have said things were tough in the United States, but the rest of the world was holding up,” Volcker told a conference featuring Nobel laureates, economists and investors at Columbia University in New York. “The rest of the world has not held up.”

In fact, the 81-year-old former chairman of the Federal Reserve said, “I don’t remember any time, maybe even the Great Depression, when things went down quite so fast.”

He noted that industrial production is falling in countries across the globe faster than in the U.S., one result of the decline caused by the breakdown of unbridled financial markets that operated on a global scale.

Volcker – Economic Crisis May Be Worse Than Great Depression
Paul Volcker: Economic Crisis May Be Worse Than Great Depression
NEW YORK — “Even the experts don’t quite know what’s going on.”
EILEEN AJ CONNELLY Feb. 20, 2009 06:29 PM ET 
EILEEN AJ CONNELLY 02/20/09 06:29 PM ET 
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…/paul-volcker-financial…

June 6, 2013 at 3:09am · Edited · Like · Remove Preview

Bienvenido Macario This recommendation from Greenspan came in today: “Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told CNBC on Friday that the central bank should taper its $85 billion a month bond buying even if the U.S. economy is not ready for it. (Read More Below the Video.)

“The sooner we come to grips with this excessive level of assets on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve-that everybody agrees is excessive-the better,” he said in a ” Squawk Box ” interview. “There is a general presumption that we can wait indefinitely and make judgments on when we’re going to move. I’m not sure the market will allow us to do that.”

But if the Fed moves too quickly in reining in its accommodative policies, he added, it could shock the market, which is already dealing with a very large element of uncertainty.

Greenspan said he’s not sure the markets will allow an easy exit. “Gradual is adequate, but we’ve got to get moving.”

Greenspan: Taper Now, Even If Economy Not Ready
By Matthew J. Belvedere | CNBC – 6 hours ago Friday, June 7, 2013
http://finance.yahoo.com/…/greenspan-taper-now-even…

June 7, 2013 at 1:53pm · Like · Remove Preview