| Perfect Storm Over Europe e-mail dated June 2, 2007Summer 2007 Forecasts / Book: ‘Last Days of Europe’ by W. Laqueur (R. Hancock,US) |
| Ned Macario <ned.macario@gmail.com> |
Sat, Jun 2, 2007 at 11:54 AM |
| To: Ned Macario <_______o@gmail.com>, “macario@stanfordalumni.org” <macario@stanfordalumni.org> | |
June 2, 2007
NOTE TO SELF Re: Europe (No future Updates?)
From the news story below dated May 29, 2007
U.S. rejects EU-Asia emissions reduction
By KIRSTEN GRIESHABER, Associated Press Writer
Tue. May 29, 2007 12:25 PM ET
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1841510/posts
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070529/ap_on_re_eu/climate_change
June 1, 2007
INTRODUCTION – FORECAST FOR EUROPE (Perfect Storm Over Europe)
Actually the best time to write this is on June 21, 2007 by then at least one more news story would be out and this discussion would be more relevant. But then again, I might forget. This e-mail is that important. (read: I want to forget and not alert others. But then again we have a lot of good folks in Europe we care about.
SUMMER 2007 Forecast (And why I’m writing this today and not 6-21-07.)
The next 3 months (June, July & Aug. 2007) is crucial for a group of European countries and one EU group. This is the longest approach to the event horizon that would peak sometime in summer 2010.
Certain socioeconomic and political device has been running for sometime now and the coming three month period is the only window for European constituencies, analysts and internal checks and balance, if any TO SEE AT LEAST ONE FUNDAMENTAL FLAW IN THEIR SYSTEM. This observer is almost sure of the outcome. It is just a matter of whether they’ll catch it on time and remove all doubts as to who should be blamed. Then there is the painful but necessary corrective measures.
This is purely a continental European affairs, UK is out of this. In fact the similar scenario is May 1940 after Dunkirk, as in after Tony Blair leaves 10 Downing Street. There are exemptions like Monaco and other active but compassionate monarchies.
If my help and participation for the clean up is requested, I’d ask for US governance of the Philippines. I’d welcome UK & Norwegian Royal participation in the Philippines.
===
Comment on Book: ‘Last Days of Europe by W. Laqueur’ as WAIS posted by R. Hancock, US 06-02-07
Mr. Laquer attributes Europe’s “stagnation and pacifism” to the continent’s “ruinous past century”–i.e., the unimaginable violence of the “twin totalitarian ideologies” (more like problematic future for ignoring the past.)
Be it the challenges listed by Laqueur or the comparative listings made by Richard Hancock, both lists are the symptoms of the deep-rooted problems that should be addressed or should have BEEN addressed.
Mass immigration and failure of immigrants to assimilate; low birth rates of native Europeans or present day Americans (after the 2nd generation immigrants) ; nature of social services infrastructure etc. are all resultants of the fundamental flaws one of which I am focused on in Europe.
I do not share Richard Hancock’s view that America’s problems are the same as that of Europe. Our problems are: Health care; pension / retirement and education, the same Perfect Storm – Domestic Edition items previously mentioned. In fact, Alan Greenspan, at one time or another pointed this out. Between Jan. & March 2007 Ben Bernanke mentioned the importance of education and challenges in funding the retirement of baby boomers in his speeches and statements.
To Google, yahoo, MSN people:
As soon as I get word and assurances that control and management of Tagalog and Bicol lands are restored to us and the Philippine archipelago’s management is back in US hands, I’d be willing to start helping the Continentals.
As in the US case I only see THREE basic problems that Continental Europe need to address. Awhile back I was fantasizing on watching Continentals “like (H) blind men, (SWS) looking for a black hat in a dark room when the hat (H) isn’t even there.” I don’t think this is going to happen. We will get back our ancestors’ lands and restore it to its natural state – no matter how long it takes. (H, SWS, H for future reference, for old reference see e-mail to Hilton 2001 & 2002)
Bienvenido Macario
Lemuria
Ancora Imparo
IGA
FAST FORWARD TO JUNE 21, 2007
===============================
Ned Macario <_____________@gmail.com>
________________________________________
Yahoo! News Story – G4 talks collapse, throw trade round into doubt – Yahoo! News
________________________________________
Bienvenido Macario <_________@yahoo.com> Thu, Jun 21, 2007 at 12:44 PM
To: Las Pinas <_________@yahoo.com>
June 21, 2007
Like clockwork. Pls. see gmail dated June 1, 2007 sent June 2, 2007 re: “Summer 2007 Forecasts for EU” troubles ahead.
Could I please have my ancestral, tribal or national land back now? I am referring to Tagalog and Bicol regions only. (After 5 years it’s got to be the whole Philippines.)
Bienvenido Macario
Lemuria
Ancora Imparo
IGA
Bienvenido Macario <_____________@yahoo.com> wrote:
Date: 21 Jun 2007 10:01:22 -0700
From: Bienvenido Macario <_________ @yahoo.com>
To: macario@stanfordalumni.org,
CC: _______@yahoo.com
Subject: Yahoo! News Story – G4 talks collapse, throw trade round into doubt – Yahoo! News – June 21, 2007
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070621/ts_nm/trade_wto_dc
Bienvenido Macario (______@yahoo.com) has sent you a news article.
(Email address has not been verified.)
————————————————————
Personal message:
NOTE: There is nothing very extra-ordinary I use in the forecasting methods of global socio-economic and financial developments. The faster we restore the Las Pinas region to its pre-1971 status, the faster I could to explain how this forecasts are made. It will not be easy but I think I could teach the process.
If you put me in a deserted island, I don’t think I could do any of these. But with a PC, decent internet connection, basic necessities, I could do these anywhere in the world, even in the Las Pinas, Philippines, USA.
“Nature never breaks its own laws” – Leonardo Da Vinci
Bienvenido Macario
Lemuria
Ancora Imparo
IGA
Below is my Face book post forecasting that the EU will be in recession officially by Sept. 20 or 21, 2012.
Bienvenido Macario
Ned Macario shared a link.
August 15
Aug. 14, 2012
Exactly eight months ago, I e-mailed this forecast below. The EU should have done something between Dec. 2011 and March 2012. Bank runs in Greece and Spain did not start until May 2012. Greece kept promising to abide by the bailout conditions Germany has laid out but has not actually followed through hoping that Germany would soften up its terms allowing Greece access to the bailout funds without the austerity conditions. Germany is not and will not change any of bailout terms. And time keeps on slipping by.
Europe will be in a recession by the 3rd week of Sept. 2012. I’d say Sept. 20 or 21.
Ned Macario
Lemuria
Ancora Imparo
IGA
============= E-mail dated Dec. 14, 2011 ===========
From: Bienvenido Macario
To: jaime de jesus ; Las Pinas
Sent: Wednesday, December 14, 2011 10:44 AM
Subject: Re: EU should act on or before March 2012
Bro.,
American workers should at least have the option to manage their own social security or let the government manage it for them just like the options federal and state employees have.
Conclusion: It is time to establish our own colony in re-establish a U.S. territory in the Philippines just like the pilgrims fled England for the New World. (I think this happens every so often.)
PS: Don’t worry, Washington DC, Wall St. and Europe are in the biggest financial crisis ever as I’ve expected. Bro. the way I see it, it will get much worse by March 2012 tops. (Greece’s and Spain’s bank runs started in May 2012 – BM Aug. 14, 2012)
There could be a “minor hiccup” in Asia centered in Manila around Feb. teens 2012. But it will just be a minor distraction.
Pres. Obama is powerless with the continuous political bickering in the US Congress.
The economy is a mess and the only bright spot is that U.S. soldiers are coming home which will most likely aggravate the unemployment situation . . .
EU DEBT CRISIS – Europe on the edge of recession 08-14-12
By By PAN PYLAS | Associated Press – 14 hrs ago Tuesday, August 14, 2012
http://news.yahoo.com/europe-edge-recession-102625704–finance.html?_esi=1
A woman who begs for money walks past a closed cash machine covered by a sticker in Rome, Tuesday, Aug. 14, 2012. Europe is edging closer to recession, dragged down by the crippling debt problems of the 17 countries that use the euro, official figures showed Tuesday..
======= end of e-mail dated Dec. 14, 2011 ========
Oh my goodness! Amazing article – Perfect Storm over Europe Forecast June 2, 2007 Impact dates June … dude! Thank you so much, However I am going through difficulties with your RSS. I don’t know why I cannot subscribe to it. Is there anybody else getting identical RSS issues? Anyone who knows the answer can you kindly respond? Thanks!!
Ismael,
Thanks for reading my article. As far as the EU debt crisis is concerned there are several very general forecasts/ call going back to Nov. 2002
From: Bienvenido Macario
To: hilton@stanford.edu
Sent: Thursday, November 14, 2002 1:46 PM
Subject: Stock Market 10-30-02
The stock market is struggling to break into the 8,800 mark. I wish France and Germany would review their EU alliance because
I think the two countries are short-changing themselves. Plus both of them have the tendency to blame the US, as in “their gains
could only be had if the US market gives up its gain.”
From: re: Europe: Is the Euro Overvalued? (Bienvenido Macario, Philippines/US)
Feb. 28, 2010 Link: http://waisworld.org/go.jsp?id=02a0&objectType=post&objectTypeId=44875&topicId=239
There are other forecast/calls posted on this blog like the Great Depression; Real estate Forecast. But I’m quite interested in EU specifically
UK and Germany. My most recent forecast/call was posted on the WAIS forum on Sept. 3, 2012 with impact on Sept. 20, 2012. It’s also on this blog.
link: http://www.nedmacario.com/welcome/european-debt-crisis-update-sept-20-2012/
Below is the forecast as posted on WAIS re: World Economy -> More US Firms Move Abroad; on the “Fiscal Cliff” on 09/03/12.
“Then there is the EU debt crisis, which I believe will officially put Europe in recession by @September 20 or 21, 2012. *One way or another, the US economy will be affected by a European recession. ECB Pres. Mario Draghi did not attend the annual meeting at Jackson Hole.
JE comments: How much has ^Ireland’s 12.5% corporate tax rate helped since 2008? For example, have many corporations relocated there since the crisis began? Nobody has the stomach for a “fiscal cliff”–I thought we already fell off one. And aren’t several nations of Europe already in recession–Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy… and Ireland?
Note that Bienvenido Macario’s “cliff date” for Europe is not far away: 21 September”
From: World Economy -> More US Firms Move Abroad; on the “Fiscal Cliff” (Bienvenido Macario, USA) Sept. 03, 2012 05:13am
http://waisworld.org/go.jsp?id=02a&objectType=post&o=71880&objectTypeId=64641&topicId=196
The Call:
Today’s news Sept. 20, 2012
^ Irish Economy Skirts Recession (for now)
By EAMON QUINN And PAUL HANNON
EUROPE NEWS September 20, 2012, 9:29 a.m. ET
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444032404578007951061647888.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
DUBLIN—The Irish economy avoided slipping into recession by the narrowest possible margin in the second quarter, but shrinking domestic demand canceled out a rise in exports, raising new questions about whether the country can meet its budget targets for next year.
=======================
@Global slowdown predicted as China records 11th month of recession
Larry Elliott Economics editor – The Guardian, Thursday 20 September 2012 13.33 EDT
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/sep/20/global-slowdown-predicted
The prospect of a synchronised recession across the global economy loomed larger on Thursday after news that China’s factory output shrank for an 11th straight month, Europe’s recession intensified and the manufacturing sector in the US had its weakest quarter in three years.
============== end of news excerpt ======
*U.S. factories struggle, Europe and China slump
By Steven C. Johnson and Andy Bruce | Reuters – 8 hrs ago Thursday, September 20, 2012
http://news.yahoo.com/u-factories-struggle-europe-china-slump-151102737–business.html?_esi=1
NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. manufacturing suffered its weakest quarter in three years and conditions at European businesses worsened, surveys showed on Thursday, while China’s economy continued to lose momentum.
The data shed more light on the difficult task facing global policymakers, particularly in Europe and the United States, who have tried to increase growth with aggressive monetary stimulus.
The U.S. manufacturing sector closed out its worst three months in September since the third quarter of 2009, according to financial information firm Markit. Export orders fell for a fourth month running as demand from Europe and Asia faded, with September’s slide the steepest in nearly a year.
==============end of news excerpt ============
@Eurozone in Deepening Recession, Survey Finds
By PAN PYLAS Associated Press – LONDON September 20, 2012 (AP)
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/eurozone-deepening-recession-survey-finds-17278082#.UFsfvY2PW8A
Europe appears headed for a deepening economic recession despite a recent easing in market concerns over the three-year debt crisis, a closely-watched survey found Thursday.
Financial data company Markit said its purchasing managers’ index — a gauge of business activity — for the 17-country eurozone fell to 45.9 in September from 46.3 the previous month.
The decline was a surprise as the consensus in the markets was for a modest improvement. Anything below 50 indicates a contraction in economic activity.
September’s rate was the lowest in over three years and came despite an easing in the rate of economic contraction in Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy.
=========== end of news excerpt =====
Calls are calls, formulating solutions is a different matter. Implementing it is more complicated.
Marco Polo when? Marco Polo, why not?
Ned Macario
Lemuria
Ancora Imparo
IGA